Friday, July 2, 2010

Tropical Update

Currently there is a low pressure associated with a stalled out stationary front just to the south of the Florida peninsula. NHC has this listed as a 10% chance of development for a subtropical or a tropical cyclone. However…when one looks at the Water Vapor loop once can clearly see the dry air that is feeding into this system from its north!  On top of that shear is anywhere from 20 knots to 50 knots across the GOM and this system is expected to move either west or SW into that higher shear environment! Real Wx Services puts the chances of this system developing much lower in the less then 2 % category until we see those above conditions mentioned improved.

Next up on the horizon is the operational ECM developing a tropical wave to the south of Cuba. This wave then heads in a similar track as Alex, across the YUCATAN into the SW GOM and up towards the same region where Alex made landfall.

However…the ECM ensemble means are not nearly as impressed with this system and at this point and time is much further south then what the operational is showing.

One of my standards with medium and long range forecasting is to always see if the operational is in harmony with its ensembles and in this case it clearly is not.

Other then the above two mentioned areas of interest..the tropics are rather quiet in the first week of the month of July with nothing on the horizon in the short term developing!

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