Thursday, July 15, 2010

A lesson In Tropical History That Many May Not Be Aware of!

1887 Had 3 tropical cyclones before todays date in July…with 2 in the month of May. Total storms 19

1916  Had 4 Tropical cyclones before todays date including the month of May. Total storms 15

1933 Had 3 tropical cyclones before todays date including one in May.  Total storms 21

1995 had three tropical cyclones before todays date, Total storms 19

2000 Late bloomer did not start till august and total storms was 15

2001 Had 1 before todays date and total storms was 15

2003  Had 3 before todays date as of tomorrow it would be 4 and the first one was in APril! Total 16 storms

2004 Late July start and total storms was 15

2007 Had 1 Subtropical and one tropical in May .Total storms 15

2008 Had 2 before this date and one of them was in May as well.Total storms 16

 

Last but not least was 2005 was 2005 which had 5 named cyclones before todays date with a record breaking 28 total storms.

So here is a list of 11 seasons. These are the highest seasons that have been achieved as far as named systems are concerned. Out of 159 years of history we have had only 11 seasons with 15 or more named systems. Out of these 11 seasons only 2 ended up with a late season starting development and they managed a total of 15 sorms.

The other 9 seasons had already had at the minimum 2 tropical cyclones to as many as 5 tropical cyclones before todays date

All other seasons fall in at 14 and under storms.

History should be a part of Tropical Seasonal forecasting and as history suggests only 11 years out of 159 achieved the status of 15 or more named storms. Some of these years above even started earlier then what Hurricane Alex started.

So this is some support for thinking that a season beating 2005..or agencies calling for 20 + named storms are in trouble because the odds in history do not support this happening.

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