Tropical Update

We have recently gone thru a period where we have had a couple different areas of weather highlighted with low percentages at potential development. These percentages were never higher then 10 %. All those areas but one have now disappeared and the one that remains is in the Caribbean and is sitting at near 0 % chance of development. We here at R.W.S. definitely agree with that percentage just we believe because of the close proximity to land this piece of energy or wave never had a chance at development so should not have been highlighted.

So lets take a look around the tropics tonight…

First stop up is the GOM.

As you can see by looking at the water vapor there is alot of clouds in the area but these are basically being caused by an ULL that has been near florida with an associated trough. Nothing of tropical interest in that region.

Next up is the Caribbean

As you can tell by looking at the caribbean you can see the energy near the Yucatan that has been a area that was being monitored. That is the area at near 0 %.

Now off to the east around 12 N and 48 W there is a tropical wave. However, right to the north of this area is a large area of dry air. However..thats really more in the Atlantic. So next stop up is the Atlantic

You can see that Tropical Wave at approximately 12 N and 48 W. This is an area of interest that we here at R.W.S will be keeping an eye on to see what happens as it progresses towards the Caribbean. Otherwise the only two other things of interest is the ULL and the amount of dry air in the Atlantic.

Now we will proceed further to the east and into the eastern Atlantic and the african coast.

First thing you notice is that there is a train of waves coming off the African coast. And when you look at this image you might think , FINALLY some waves that might result in action.

However, when you put this link in motion CLICK HERE, you actually see these waves being essentially shredded apart and lets see the reason why. First by the above image you can see the dry air ..however lets look at the shear tendency maps for a better explanation..

This image really explains the reason why these waves are essentially getting sacrificed. Shear is vastly on the increase in the region off the African Coast.

So that is a look at the Tropics this early Saturday morning and as is evident they continue to remain quiet and i suspect that over the next 7 days they should continue to remain quiet aside from some open waves.

We will continue to monitor the Tropics and update this whenever necessary!