AOI #2 is producing continued thunderstorm activity and is located in a upper level environment that is conducive for further develop as shear ranges between 5 and 10 knots and is expected to decrease by as much as 10 knots. Aside from that, water vapor (moisture) profile is good as well as upper level divergence and low level convergence, which would allow for good breathing dynamics for outflow formation and continued thunderstorm activity. As for 859mb vorticity, it's not that good as there seems to be no low level circulation. Therefore, although upper level environment and surface environment are conducive for development as of now, the lack of a low level circulation center, implies that development should be slow to occur. Besides the parameters aforementioned, very favorable MJO in phase 2, allows for continued upward motion, which enhances thunderstorm activity which further would serve to aid in any possible develop of AOI #2.
Below are displayed the NHC Rainbow IR and Water Vapor satelite images: (Both display RWS's new area of interest.
NHC Rainbow IR:
Water Vapor:
Notice: Images can be found on the NHC site on its satellite page. Original images do not have drawn red circles.
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