Alot of discussion in the late evening yesterday as to folks thinking that this was a Tropical Depression already and had a closed LLC. READERS be ware that just because there is a convection blow up does NOT mean there is a closed low. ASCAT passes at 3 Z and 4 Z did not show a closed low or an LLC. There could be one developing now albeit very weak but that will be discussed below.
GOES Satellite Data went down for sometime yesterday and it took some time for images to get updated and that is why this update is being posted at the time that it is. Never the less it contains alot of information in it.
Well after what has seemed like quite a lengthy time I have finally gotten some images to update...So lets take a look at what current conditions are like as of 6 Z...
Starting off with the shear we are currently having westerly shear of 10-20 knots but we are extremely close to the 20 + shear zone. This is being created by the ULL to its NW .
Best convergence actually is to the North/Northeast of the system.
As far as upper level divergence is concerned it is right on the border of the greatest area of divergence which is immediately east of where as of 6 Z the invest was located.
Vorticity ,as of 6 Z the invest is in the greatest area of vorticity, however, it still remains stretched out and elongated.
This is also seen on the water vapor image as its a very broad system.
The water vapor loop also shows the dry air immediately east of the system and immediately west of the system. Dry air west of the system is being caused by the ULL.
Here is another image of the dry air ..
As you can see there is pretty much dry air in the path of this system as it moves off to the WNW.
There is evidence of a MLC but there still remains no clear evidence of anything other then a very weak LLC. The ULL is still in the vicinity and matter of fact the latest tropical discussion now mentions two ULL within the vicinity of 97 L.
“
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE SOUTHERN
BAHAMAS FROM 21N-24N BETWEEN 67W-74W DUE TO THE SURFACE TROUGH.
A 1027 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 35N38W. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE N BAHAMAS NEAR
27N77W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SE OF THE CENTER IS ENHANCING THE
CONVECTION OVER THE S BAHAMA SURFACE TROUGH. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 19N57W. EXPECT CONTINUED
CONVECTION N OF PUERTO RICO... HISPANIOLA...AND CUBA OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.”
Shear tendency map shows shear increasing off to its NW and off to its SE. This is due to the two ULLs that 97 L is sandwiched between.
For a storm to be able to intensify you really do not want to see it in the position that it is in now. As long as that ULL stays nearby its going to continue to keep the system in check. You can tell looking at the Water Vapor that the shear is still having an effect on the system by stretching the clouds out and off to the North. Convection remains largely north and east of the center and if there is any indication of where the invest is the IR 2 Loop shows it well and shows a very weak LLC that is exposed and out ahead of the convection going along the border of Cuba...
This also is not a good sign for the system to strengthen..
So there are multiple factors right now that are not too good for development with 97 L and will put the chances at developing to a TD in the next 24 hrs at 30 %
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