Earlier yesterday afternoon between 15 Z and 18 Z I had made a comment that had caused a little negative reaction. That comment was directed towards NHC highlighting the area off the FL coast as an invest at 10 %. When this area was highlighted it was done so at a time when there was not a surface low and almost every wave becomes an invest if it has potential for development when it reaches 20 %. A surface reflection or low did not develop until 18 Z which was after the time frame where i had to leave the computer to attend my daily job. When i left for work HPC had yet to update the 18 Z surface map so basing off EWALL instead there was not a surface low shown. However, turns out that map was in error.
Aside from the above ..it all becomes pretty mute because this “invest” is still sitting at just a 10 % chance over the next 48 hrs.
So lets first look at this area of potential development.
As of 3 Z this invest was still attached to a frontal system.
However, as of the writing of this the 6 Z data has come in and now shows the system has become detached from the front.
However,this still would be considered a non tropical area of low pressure.
However...stepping out further...mentioned about all the showers were pushing southwards yesterday afternoon and that was also indeed the case and as of now not much rain is occurring over Florida.
The best convergence and divergence for this system right now(this writing was done at 3 Z) lies to the south and to the southwest and the vorticity is rather stretched out and elongated.
Shear across the region is about 20 knots plus and there is also some dry air across the region.
So with the above factors in play and the very fact that this is a non tropical low pressure and the fact that it is expected to cross over the state of Florida, high shear, some dry air, ..I would put the chances at this developing into a tropical cyclone over the next 48 hrs at 0%.
Next area of interest in the tropics is 93 L
Tropical Invest 93 L Latest Analysis using 6 Z Data as the most recent data.
First thing we are going to look at is the visible in relation to 93 L, along with the water vapor.
As one can plainly see on the two images above that there is some convection that is firing but all the convection presently is to the North and the east of the center. The center is exposed and this is one thing that is not very favorable if you are looking for a system to develop. Its difficult to decipher whether or not the center is closed at this present time.
Presently shear has increased to 10-20 knots across the system..and while the vorticity area is good the best convergence and divergence lies to the east of the system as of 6 Z.
However..perhaps the biggest hindering factor continues to be dry air across the region of which the system is trying to develop.
The system is also still over relatively cooler waters.
So right now the environment that 93 L is actually not conducive for developing...shear has increased..dry air remains and the best convergence and divergence is east of the direction it is moving.. which is west with a wobble north as well.
Right now I put the chances at this developing into a tropical depression at about 40 % and a tropical storm at about 20% over the next 24-48 hrs.
Next update will be 24 hrs from now unless changes are needed sooner due to nowcasting observations.
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