June 12th Severe Weather Outlook

June 12th Severe Weather Outlook

We are going to start off with looking at the surface maps that are anticipated so we can see where the front is located and where it is expected to be. As of 6 Z this is where the front is expected to be..http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/91fwbgus.gif ..as of 12 Z..http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/92fwbgus.gif as of 18 Z..http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/93fwbgus.gif and 00z Wed (Tuesday evening) http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/94fwbgus.gif..

It is along this front that we think the severe activity should be focused.. So when you are looking at the red zone keep in mind that some of this is going to be occurring in the overnight hours (NOW) and then the other reason it is in the red zone is because of the parameters in place. Now ..the one thing that does not make much sense to us is the high EHI and HELICITY located where it is ..but yet the front is further south which would represent where the activity should be focused. Later in the evening the Lower Level Jet is expected to increase and this is when we think the tornado potential will come into play across western TX...

TEMPERATURES are going to continue to be warm and muggy across the region with highs from 70-100 degrees. http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/06/12/00/NAM_221_2012061200_F18_TMPF_2_M_ABOVE_GROUND.png...

DEW POINTS will be in the 60-70 degree range ..http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/06/12/00/NAM_221_2012061200_F24_DPTF_2_M_ABOVE_GROUND.png...CAPE or INSTABILITY is going to be from 500-3500 ..http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/06/12/00/NAM_221_2012061200_F24_CAPE_SURFACE.png ..

LIFT INDEX is 0 to negative 10 depending on where you are located.. http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/06/12/00/NAM_221_2012061200_F24_PLI_30_0_MB_ABOVE_GROUND.png...

ENERGY HELICITY INDEX http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/06/12/00/NAM_221_2012061200_F24_EHI_3000_M.png and HELICITY..http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/06/12/00/NAM_221_2012061200_F24_HLCY_3000_M_ABOVE_GROUND_0_M_ABOVE_GROUND.png ..

EHI and HELICITY would support tornado potential into the region we highlighted in the red zone but keep in mind conflicting signals with the front being the trigger being located further to the south. West TX is pretty clear as the lower level jet increases.

.And SHEAR is 40-50 knots http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/06/12/00/NAM_221_2012061200_F24_SHRM_500_MB.png ..

So we will place the greatest tornado risk across west TX..and 2% elsewhere in the red zone... Pay attention to your favorite weather source and we will be here all day monitoring the situation and should anything change we will let ya know on this page and on our Down to Earth forecasting page on Facebook!