CAPE 1000-3000 Depending on location
LI -2 to -8 depending on location
Triggers: Advancing warm front followed by advancing cold front
The above are the pros..
However, once again as it seems to be the case lately the cons to severe weather would be lack of sufficient shear. Shear is only around 30-40 knots and where the best shear is are the worst severe parameters such as CAPE & LI for example.
The other hindrance to severe weather is weak lapse rates of only 5.5-6.0
So essentially I think there is going to be a better threat for convective rainfall then there is severe weather but isolated severe weather will be possible but I am not sure ATM if the slight risk that SPC has will actually verify. I think the best chance for severe weather may actually be in VA and south.
No comments:
Post a Comment