December 5th Time Period-Level 1 Remains

Yesterday we posted the following :

What do we need to happen to either make this a more potent storm or make this a storm that would effect more people?

1. We need the S/W to come north by about 100 miles

2. We need the S/W to be even more potent that is dropping thru the central plains.

3. We need less confluence in the NE

4. We need that ULL to be weaker and further north..

If these things happen then we could be talking about an earlier phase and a different beast of a sustem.

After the 00z model solutions ..we have the following:

1. The S/W on every model solution has actually come south of its earlier positions. So the opposite of what we need to happen in order for this to effect areas further north. (Not sure i am buying this actually happening and will explain why in the next section after the first 4 earlier points are covered.

2. The S/W has actually de-amplified on all guidance with the exception of the 00z ECM which the S/W was actually a little stronger aloft. SO, again, guidance not heading the direction that we would want to see happen.

3. Confluence in the NE also has not become any less of an influence with the exception of the ECM where the trough is not quite as deep and is flattened out a bit more then prior.

4. The ULL or Vortex has not become any weaker on any of the guidance and in some cases (ECM) has become stronger.

Back to point # 1 . The reason that I am having a hard time buying this clipper dropping so far south is because it is not actually a clipper originating in Canada..where it would have that momentum but rather coming from the Pacific.

Usually when they originate from the Pacific they do not move South or south east but rather in a more west to east type of fashion. So this is going to be something that is going to have to be nowcasted to see if it indeed does drop so far south or move more west to east.

Right now it appears as the best area for precipitation would be south of DC. Things could change but time is beginning to run out. However…last year we had systems modeled like this that changed within 36 hours and less. So in that sense, perhaps there is more time but a very narrow window!

Level 1 will remain in place as it appears that there will indeed be a light snow event ..just what specific region still in question and it also looks like downeast Maine will be effected as well with this system, as the system explodes offshore and then retrogrades.

Stay tuned for the next update!