The Christmas Confusion & Mayhem Continues

In all honesty, last night the 00z models were completely all over the place with the exception of one model that remained consistent as far as deepness of the storm but also adjusted its speed. More about that in a bit. Lets look at the models…

First model up is the 00z UKMET as you can tell this model develops an absolute bomb as it charges northwards along and off the coast.

Next the 00z GGEM this also develops a bomb but this model is even more east then prior runs. A factor for this could be that it completely has the southern stream S/W vanish at 36 hrs. Without that there would be no phase and OTS it would go.

On to the GFS..the GFS has actually been relatively consistent but as of tonight it actually was slightly more west then its prior runs. This too in further hours develops quite the bomb and hits SNE pretty good.

Now, on to the most consistent model..this should be no surprise here it is the ECM OP on top and Means on Bottom. As you can see the means is weaker..this could mean that the storm could be weaker but more likely its  the effect of 52 members smoothing down. The Op came a slight tick east and has adjusted its speed ..however..as we like to let the truth be known it did NOT cave into the GFS/GGEM/UKMET as neither of those bring precipitation to PA/NJ and south.

Granted, the ECM did not show a HECS but its still a Major Storm which even on the means deepens to 976 north.

dark gray 2-2.5
pink 1.75-2
lgt pink 1.5-1.75
blue 1.25-1.5
lgt purple 1-1.25
turqouise .75-1
white .5-.75
green .25-.5
lgt green <.25

This would also be some high ratios along the lines of 15:1-20:1 because the upper levels are so cold

Its important to note a few things. 00z models were without Data that came specifically from the ULL off the SW coast. This could have effected the models. The next thing to note is this is 7 runs of the ECM to show a major snowstorm along the east coast with 5 being HECS.

QPF will fluctuate from run to run ..Another important thing to note is that both the GFS means and the GGEM means are more west then the ops…in the case of the GFS ..normally they have a SE bias because of the lower resolution so this is highly important and indicative that future runs could come west.

We will continue the level 2 with so much uncertainty leaning on the consistency of the ECM ..However..and perhaps the most important part to take home on this is the following:

When a storm blows up that deep it is due to a thermal gradient. Climo argues that the thermal gradient would be on the western edge or right along the Gulf stream. So..lets watch and see what happens with the guidance over the next 24 hrs..

Stay tuned for more information!