We here at Real Wx Services have been analyzing the models for the past several days in relation to this time period. Prior update essentially laid out what the different model runs were doing and we also laid out why this pattern & any systems within this pattern are going to be so complicated to figure out.
Tonight we had a new set of model runs to analyze and essentially the differences stand out in stark contrast between the GFS & the ECM.
Tonight the GFS is still putting too much emphasis on the retrograding area of low pressure near Maine. However…some improvements could be noted with a stronger ridge out west and slightly deeper trough in the east and a little more potent on the S/W we are all watching.
However..other then those improvements the GFS continues to essentially dampen out the clipper and it only manages to provide some light snow or flurries in parts of the region.
Now lets look at the ECM ..
Some major changes on the ECM tonight. First notable change comes in between 78-84 hours where the S/W in the central plains states is much deeper and faster as well. Next noticeable improvement is the trough is deeper across the Ohio Valley and the ULL is further north and weaker. (The feature that the GFS is stronger with) Next thing that occurs is around 102 hours as the trough starts to take on a negative tilt. Another major difference between the GFS and ECM..because at this point and time the GFS has that completely flat. One the low pressure gets to about Cape Hatteras it starts to phase…while at that time the H 5 is closed off over Central Va. Around 114 hours you can see the Polar Vortex starting to phase in as well. Then it moves ENE before hooking back into effect New England.
This was a complete turn around from the 12 Z run..however..its not like we have not seen this type of scenario on the ECM before. It was basically the same type of scenario when it showed the solution where it hooked into New England after leaving about 3-6 inches from the PA/MD border south while leaving PA to NYC essentially in the screw zone with only an inch or two. So this is once again that solution however this go around the S/W is more potent.
So at this point and time we have a system that effects the south with a snow event from about NC North to DC (lighter at DC) and then misses PA to NYC and then retrogrades back into New England.
What do we need to happen to either make this a more potent storm or make this a storm that would effect more people?
1. We need the S/W to come north by about 100 miles
2. We need the S/W to be even more potent that is dropping thru the central plains.
3. We need less confluence in the NE
4. We need that ULL to be weaker and further north..
If these things happen then we could be talking about an earlier phase and a different beast of a sustem.
The good news is …there is still time yet…for these improvements to happen. The S/W that is responsible that comes thru the rockies is still in the North Central pacific which is a sparse data region.
I believe we will still see more changes to this system before the time comes.
Due to the above happening Level 1 will continue …Now we all know what to look for on the next model runs!
Stay tuned!
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