12/19/2010
Time: 2 PM
Effective: Late Christmas Eve thru X Mas Night
Effected areas: Mid Atlantic into the Northeast
Models are coming into agreement for the potential of a white christmas across the region. Models are showing low pressure entering the west coast and coming down out of the rockies. This low then proceeds to move on a west to east basis across the Conus. Models are starting to pump up the west coast ridge more which is carving a deeper trough in the east. This may actually send the storm a little south of east on its trek across the country. Before making the turn up the eastern seaboard.
Lets look at this models from 12 Z today & the thing to note about the GFS & ECM is they are lock stocked together the past several runs as far as track is concerned. Timing differences aside they both phase the Northern Stream with the pacific energy and take the system to the Benchmark.
The images above display the timing differences. However they all agree with a track as mentioned above and a deepening low pressure moving up along the eastern seaboard. The major difference between the two models is the QPF output. At this stage in the game however being we are about 5-6 days out from this event…QPF amounts will fluctuate and settle themselves out at about 2 days before the event.
Real Wx Services feels at this time due to the holiday upcoming it is prudent to issue a Level 1 Alert to “Be Prepared” for Significant Winter Weather to effect your travel plans.
Timing on this system looks to be somewhere after midnight of the 24th or early morning hours of the 25th.
This storm has the potential to deliver a moderate to perhaps heavy snowfall across the region. At this time it would be too early to get into specifics.
We created a tracking chart last night of what should be the general track of this system & feel no need to alternate from it at this point & time.
Stay tuned for further updates on this developing winter storm!
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