Level 2 Alert : Be Prepared .. This means that guidance is converging on a solution and conditions are at the approaching the level where you should actually prepare for significant winter weather..
Time Issued : 4:30 AM
Date Issued: 12/20
Effective 12/24-12/26
Effected areas..Mid Atlantic into the Northeast ..except immediately along the coast has the chance for precipitation type problems.
Models have trended further south and stronger with the shortwave of interest. Majority of the models are bringing the shortwave at of the rockies and dropping it south into Tx moving across the GOM and then across the southeast and then making the turn up the coast as the Northern Jet Stream phases in with the system and creates a substantial snowstorm. There are some timing differences in the time of the storm and the timing of the phasing. However ..sufficient to say is all guidance is phasing these two jet streams together and riding a storm up the coast.
The European computer model actually delivers a historical East Coast Snow storm that would be a blizzard across the region from DC to the NE.
The only model that was not showing this solution was the GFS ..however that is due to it having the southern stream shortwave faster where as the other models had this slower. The GFS slides more off to the south and east off the coast and phases and makes the turn a little too late.
This storm is occurring at a time period where the pattern is changing and this is generally the time when larger storms occur and potential KU storms can occur. The GWO is also in a favorable phase which is another indicator in favor of development. The PNA ridge is spiking and the –NAO –AO ..would indeed be capable of slowing down the southern stream S/W allowing for the solutions above.
We feel that the GFS at the surface is the outlier but at H5 (the upper levels 500 mbs) it is in pretty much the same camp of solutions.
So with the models converging on this we have decided to upgrade to a Level 2 Alert. This storm has the potential to be a significant Winter weather event and the potential to impact your holiday travel plans.
To just give you an indication of what the ECM was indicating for QPF (which is conservative via its depiction) is a general 1.00-1.25 without ratios.
Stay tuned for further updates and any potential upgrades to a Level 3.
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If you are not yet aware we do have live chat that analyzes these runs and it is only at Real Wx Service forums. If you have not yet joined ..now is the time to join and discuss this potential event!
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