Real Wx Services is carrying over the Level 2 Alert but are very close to pulling the trigger for a level 3 Alert. A reminder of Level 3 Alert is Ruh Roh! It means a Significant Winter Weather Storm is coming & is expected to impact the area. We are close to pulling the trigger but need to hold off a little longer.
Some of the NWS offices that are updating their AFDS this morning really need to look at the guidance a little better then what they do in their AFD discussions. The biggest gripe I have today is with Mt Holly who claims that the guidance is ALL OVER THE PLACE!!! Were they watching the same guidance that we were watching ???
Lets look at the guidance from 00z for the 21st…
The above models are the GGEM, ECM & GFS . The ECM means was used because it is compatible more speed wise with the rest of guidance compared to the OP but even the means from 144-168 crawl the low NEwards,
As one can see the GGEM & ECM are depicting what would be a SECS borderline HECS with winds to blizzard force quite possible and QPF ranging from .75 to 1.75 depending on location. The GFS while a little faster on timing also is depicting a much stronger and further west storm then prior runs. So essentially we have three models in complete harmony with a Significant Winter Weather Event with the GFS just slightly more North in its evolution.
As you can see by looking at this next image QPF is pretty good and with the cold temperatures @ 850 we would be looking at ratios of about 16:1
gray 1.25-1.5
yellow 1-1.25
pink .75-1
green .5-.75
blue .25-.5
The only solution tonight that was more east and would not have any effect was the UKMET..However even that model at 144 hrs showed a deep low pressure of 983 mbs and using the red flag of the Nogaps which was more NW of the UKMET…that generally implies the UK is an outlier on the southern edge of guidance!
Let me stress the only thing that guidance is not agreeing on at this point is the speed of the system. Outside of the UKMET..all guidance agrees on a Significant Winter Weather Event to effect the east coast around Christmas Day!
Stay tuned for more information later today!
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