This is going to be very brief due to the time but …latest models seem to be coming to a consensus on the Christmas Week Storm and if you are southwest of extreme coastal New england it appears as though your time is running out to see any last minute changes in the modeling.
Just to give you an idea at what we are looking at…
Now this is the 6 Z GFS which actually is slightly east of 00z..however you can see just how close this one is . And being this is 66-72 hrs away it is close enough to warrant attention..especially in Cape Cod and extreme SNE ..where if the area of low pressure is anywhere wrapped up as tight as what this model shows it to be,,could be looking at blizzard conditions.
So for the area of Cape Cod and extreme SNE along the coast..we are going to leave the level 2 in place…
ALL other regions we are going to drop back down to a Level 1. While it seems likely that this will indeed be far enough off the coast to spare inland any effects other then winds..there is still some spreads in the means that we feel warrant keeping a LEVEL 1 elsewhere which simply means we need to be on guard because conditions are favorable..
As you can see in the ECM means here at 72 there is quite the spread to the west and Southwest.
We will be here thru X MAS Eve and X MAS day to continue to track this and monitor this and in all reality its going to come down to watching this develop via old fashion Now Casting with Radar, Satellite, Water Vapor and Sea Level Pressure etc. For example things are looking more active via Radar currently *5:17 AM… then what is being modeled. It would also appear that thunderstorms look to be developing in SW TX and precipitation at this time is moving due east..
So stay tuned will be back with more info after 12 Z runs!
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