When we released the winter forecast we talked about a cold december would be felt in the wake of November..and this is exactly what happened except for the same areas of the NE that last year were warmer then normal.
Most impressive is the southeast. Considering this is a La Nina and this area should be warmer then normal.
However, even more impressive is the following news which comes from Don Sutherland..
“Today, the AO was -3.065. December 2010 set records for December blocking during La Niña events. Records included the lowest daily AO reading, lowest monthly average, and most days with an AO figure of -3 or below.
Moreover, it should be noted that the AO is likely moving into a long-term negative cycle.
The 10-year moving average bottomed out in 1966 (-0.423 10-year average) and then peaked in 1995 (+0.253 10-year average). It has generally been falling since that time. The chart does not include 2010, as the data is not yet final. Based on the preliminary figures, when this year's data is in, the 10-year moving average will have fallen further to around -0.125, the lowest 10-year figure since 1988 (-0.224 10-year average). In addition, 2010 will finish with an annual average of just below -1.025. That would break the record of -0.959 set in 1960. The record high annual average is +1.024, established in 1990.”
What does this mean for the rest of the winter? If guidance has any clue the rest of this month looks to be on the very cold side with opportunities for snow as well!
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