Models Seem To Be Converging on A Solution!

Tonight the models seem to be coming in to general agreement with the NAM being the outlier as of 00z due to it being to slow and to strong with the primary and too deep with the primary as well.

Though, admittedly the 6 Z GFS was also 6 hrs slower then its 00z counter part so we may not be able to rule out a slower solution just quite yet.

So lets look at the models and then we will look at their means as well..

The above is the UKMET/GFS & ECM Operational models and you can see that they basically agree with this system and its tracking a primary into and towards Ohio and PA area. Now the image did not update for the GGEM at 72 hrs so for the GGEM we will be looking at the ensemble means..

Now interestingly enough the GFS means and the GGEM means & the ECM means are all west of the operational runs..

And another note of interest is that the 12 Z ECM means was only down to 991, while the 00z gets the low pressure down to 989 which would indicate slightly more amplified.

Essentially what this system will boil down to is the following:

1. Primary remains stronger and more together further north then the secondary is going to become tucked in very close to the coast. Enough to give precipitation issues.

2. The primary dies off quicker. This would result in a solution a little further east like the OPS show but at the most one would expect would be a moderate snowstorm in the Mid Atlantic and heavier in Southern New England. This route there would be pretty much no precipitation type issues.

We were going to do a snowfall amount map tonight but with the means further to the west & wetter..we decided to hold off till 12 Z today (sometime after noon) at which time a Level 3 Alert will be going into effect.

At this point and time it would appear that the heaviest snowfalls will be in NJ and points Northeast. However..we will fine tune this later today!

Some nowcasting thoughts to consider as well:

1.Currently there is a lot of convection over TX at the present time even with confirmed tornados. This means there is a lot of latent heat release going on and points to the potential of this being more moisture loaded then indicated by models.

2. Since this will be travelling on the western side of the GULF STREAM, which is where the greatest thermal gradient is..the models could be underdoing the effect that this gradient would have on the cyclone development. In other words this could deepen quicker then expected.

Stay tuned for more updates!