Well, here @ R.W.S we like to tell it as it is. We like to be straight forward. We also believe in using all guidance and not just hugging a particular model because it performs best etc. The theme of this time frame is appropriately titled “ Go west young man!” This is because every system this winter season has ended up further west at the end of verification then what the models suggest in the medium range.
Despite what you may have heard or read on the internet the model that has been leading the way with these systems being further west has been the NOGAPS!
Remember the NOGAPS bias is extremely progressive and always south and east when it comes to coastal situations. However..this winter season it has not really shown a south and east track yet and its been further NW then other guidance and that guidance goes over to what the NOGAPS was showing first as far as tracks go. Amazing tool to use folks! Do not be blinded like alot of these pro mets who refuse to acknowledge its usefulness!
So lets see where we stand tonight with this particular system..
As you can see at 144 hrs the NOGAPS is inland . You can also see at that point and time that in the northern mid atlantic over into western MD it is also cold enough to support snow which would be moderately to heavy. Now from this time frame on it essentially takes the low pressure on a NNE track and keeps it over land. I do not think that beyond 144 hrs the NOGAPS is correct in the tracking but it is showing the tracking at the extreme wrapped up solution possible. I will be putting a scenario map out with this update to show my thoughts…
Lets look at the rest of the guidance…
GGEM at 144 hrs is basically in the same position as the NOGAPS (surprise, surprise) and from there it takes it NNE along the coast and keeps it just off shore. However it appears a little too progressive and if you would slow it down some..it would be pretty close to the actual track i am thinking.
UKMET is much slower with the system and i would consider it a slow outlier so there is not to much to say at this point and time on it other then another progressive model that would lead to a coastal hugger.
00z GFS @ 144 hrs once again another model that is very progressive and also well north and east of what the NOGAPS up above would show. So, i can tell you with 100% confidence that the GFS will be coming in more organized & deeper and SW of that position there as the NOGAPS flags it.
Now this is actually pretty interesting because the ECM is actually in the same spot as the NOGAPS as far as latitude but it is slightly east. Tuck that in to the west a bit and you will be looking at something closer to reality at 144 hrs and then take that off to the NNE.
So what am i expecting with this time period. There is no real semblance of a 50/50 low. The high pressure is not locked in. However..before this storm arrives ..which starting time would be monday night late..we are dealing with some of the coldest air of the season. So the air that is in place will be cold , very cold to start with this storm. However, the high pressure that brings that cold air in will start to move off more to the east ..which will allow warmer air to work its way in aloft. Because this is a coastal it should generally keep winds in the ENE direction. We have just seen this recently.
Generally i am expecting this low pressure to travel anywhere from 50 miles at most off the coast to actually on the eastern edge of the NJ coast. That is the range i am expecting.
Now to show what i am thinking as far as precipitation type..
This is a very early preliminary map & folks you will not see anyone else issuing a scenario map this early with this event but this is something i am rather confident on.
Being that most of the models are in relative agreement that there will be a huge storm..we are going to issue a Level 1 Alert to be “on Guard” ..This basically means that there is the potential of a significant winter storm during this period!
While we feel the more western track is the correct thinking at this time..and the ECM is in agreement with this as well..we feel the one thing that the ECM is in error on is the QPF on the western side of the storm. This is coming from the GOM ..and then it is going around Hatteras. This storm will have plenty of moisture to work with. We feel that this will be the biggest storm of the season for the inland areas! Stay tuned for more information on this system!
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