Jan 11-13th ECM Bows Down To NOGAPS

Yes, you read that title correctly and lets get right to it. We are going to look at the 00z guidance and we are going to start with the ECM. Go back to previous posts and look at the images of the NOGAPS and you will clearly see the NOGAPS has been out in front with this system. Surprisingly so!

You are now looking at tonights European Computer Model at 00z. The ECM means are step in step but more organized and developed and also more wet then the operational.

Yes folks either way you look at it the model is showing a coastal hugger.

Lets look at some details on the means..

The Euro ensembles are a huge hit. 998mb surface low is southeast of Montauk. Cold enough for everybody and a good amount of precipitation too.

Not really northwest of the 12z ensembles...just a hair north. And way wetter and more developed with the surface low.

Now lets look at some more guidance..

The GGEM is also in the same category as the Nogaps. Out of the 00z guidance it is only the GFS and UKMET that continues to be further to the east. More east then the GGEM and more east then the ECM and more east then the NOGAPS.

Though admittedly it has indeed trended better and closer to what the NOGAPS has been showing. Where it is lacking is on the development of the primary. It keeps it weaker hence the hand off is later and not as strong and does not pull it back closer to the coast. Strangely enough its the progressive bias doing this and yet the NOGAPS with that bias has been handling the scenario better.

UKMET looks like its actually trailing behind the 00z ECM from 24 hrs ago as it does not look like it has a primary into the ohio valley area and its well to the east.

Now finally the Nogaps..

As you can see the NOGAPS continues its consistency and this has been now ten runs in a row and as you can see from all the other guidance that the models have either trended west to a coastal hugger like the NOGAPS or are still trending like the GFS. The means are also North and West of the GFS op.

So with basically all guidance outside of the UKMET coming in harmony we here at R.W.S are upgrading the level 1 Alert to a Level 2 Alert.

Level 2 Alert means be prepared for a Potential Major East Coast Winter Storm to effect the area. Timeframe we are looking at is Tuesday and Wednesday …This storm will be moisture laden from the GOM, the Atlantic & a Pacific Connection.

Stay Tuned for further updated information on this developing situation!