January 20-22nd Who Would Have Thought?

After spending the majority of the day yesterday, being told that the ECM was being the most consistent model, being told that the ECM is leading the way…being told by both Pro Mets & other individuals that I was wrong in reference to my stand on the European Computer Model..who would of thought that it would speed up the storm by 52 hrs?

This is what makes R.W.S different from the rest…We are not afraid to go against the grain when we are looking at guidance. Just because a better performing model shows something happening does not make it a factual event. Especially when that model was playing to its own bias. Pro Mets could not pick this up…we did…

So lets look at the model guidance tonight. We are now looking at a Potential East Coast Storm in the time frame of 96-120 hrs out. 4-5 days.

GFS in this time frame has some over running light snows that move into the area but in reality it looks more like a cold frontal passage.

You can see where the model has the low by 120 hrs out.

Develops another wave along the south that then proceeds to move due east.

European computer model after speeding up by 52 hrs now focuses on the same time frame as the rest of guidance but is very similar to the GFS as you can tell by the positioning of the lows. ECM also brings light over running snows like the GFS.

UKMET is also similar to the GFS/ECM. So here we now have three major models agreeing with one another on a light snow event.

Now lets look at the other major model that is left and see what it is showing.

Yes folks the GGEM is showing a BOMB loaded with QPF and this my friends and readers would be a Major East Coast Storm if not a Historical East Coast Storm. However…the model is alone…or is it?

Now we turn to the means of the GFS.

So here we see a more aggressive scenario then the OP model ..however..still not resembling the GGEM.

Just how correct are the UKMET/GFS/ECM? So now we are going to up the ANTE a little bit.

Remember how we have learned to look to the NOGAPS to see if it is a Red Flag to the other guidance? We have learned that the model has a progressive bias and a SE bias when it comes to coastals. So basically if the other guidance looks like the NOGAPS..it means they are too far east. If the NOGAPS is more West and the other guidance is east..then they will trend back west.

Look very carefully at the above image of the 00z NOGAPS for 120 hrs out. Would it be fair to say that the NOGAPS looks just like the GFS? ECM? UKMET? I think it is pretty obvious when you look at the models above that they are showing practically the same solution.

Meanwhile the 00z GGEM is to the west.

So throwing all the pieces of the puzzle together ..The NAO is currently neutral Negative..the AO is also neutral negative and the PNA is positive. A positive PNA supports a trough along the east coast. A ridge out west. A neutral negative NAO/AO would also support cold air for the system but not frigid air. The teleconnections would also support a more western track.

Also remember where the greatest thermal gradient is as well. Along the western edge of the Gulf Stream. So current thinking is that future model runs are going to bring this storm further west…and there is the potential for a Major East Coast Storm. Will it be as west as the GGEM and as powerful? To early to say with any certainty but the potential is there in the pattern!

Stay tuned for more information on this time frame!