Well, as you can tell by the title of this the storms keep coming and the pattern keeps going. Basically we seem to be in a pattern where we are getting more a storm system every 3-5 days and just about on cue is the next potential storm.
This storm as the potential to be loaded with alot of moisture as it will be heavily influenced by the GOM. This storm also has the potential to be west and by west i mean either a coastal hugger or an inland runner.
Remember i said how the NOGAPS seems to be leading the way with these systems and the models end up trending towards them?
Well the first model that came out at 00z that goes to this time range was the GFS.
After this hour the model truncates and loses more resolution so we will not post it but it goes off the east coast and outside of some light QPF into the Northern Mid Atlantic it is out to sea. Majority of time at this range this is something you like to see ..However..we are about to learn that it is not correct in its timing or its solution.
Lets look at the GGEM which was the next model out.
Needless to say while the GFS is south and east ..the GGEM is an inland runner. Just to show you the QPF that is associated with the GGEM @ 144 hrs..
As you can see its an abundant area of moisture. Next up was the UK which only goes to 144 hrs ..However.. a general idea can be received from it..
You can also see the size of the trough going neutrally to negative tilted and this would also be a huge storm coming up the coast if the model went out further. Would it be an inland runner? That we do not want to speculate on.
Next up is the ECM.
As you can plainly see pretty much all guidance is to the west of the GFS and all guidance has an inland runner with the exception of the GFS. This pretty much means the GFS is an outlier here. Both the GGEM, ECM would bring heavy snows north into the mid atlantic but then they would change over to heavy rains..especially along the coast. The ECM takes the low pressure area over New Hope Pa.
00z NOGAPS..
As you can see the NOGAPS is west as well but not as far west as the other models but that would be because of that SE bias. The interesting thing is that this model comes out at the same time as the GFS so by the time the GFS run was done i was able to view the above bottom image and when i seen that I knew the GFS was in error & expected the other guidance to come in west of the GFS. So the GGEM & ECM being west does not come as a surprise & once again..the NOGAPS is leading the way with the system.
At this point and time I do not think the ensemble means are going to be supportive of the above solutions of the GGEM & ECM ..however this does not mean the western track is incorrect. This is really too far out in time to get specific with details but I just wanted to lay this out on the table as another period to watch on the models with the potential to be a bigger storm!
More details will be forthcoming in the following days!
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