As you have been probably reading and discovering , here at Real Wx Services we are not afraid to be real with our forecasting and not afraid to forecast with confidence when not all models are supportive of what we are seeing.
In our last update we put out an update for a potential powerhouse type storm along the mid atlantic into the Northeast for the 11th to 12th time period. We also put out a rough sketch of a preliminary scenario map. We were not afraid to use what has worked for quite a few years to look past the models and look into the models and see what they were trying to show. When we started talking about this storm system only one model was showing what we thought was the likelyhood result and that model is a model that no other weather office uses. That does not bother us here at R.W.S.
So tonight, we are going to start off with the model that has been leading the way for the other models. This is now the 6th run in a row where it has shown an amped up solution with a primary heading towards Ohio..actually over KY and handing off to a secondary coastal. This model once again has a very well known progressive SE bias so when it is west or NW of the other guidance it serves as a red flag. We been talking about that now for 6 runs worth of models.
Lets look at the 00z NOGAPS
As you see the NOGAPS is showing a AMPED up system loaded with tons of moisture from the GOM as well as the Pacific connection. So have any of the other models trended west?
Well..not only does the GGEM tonight show a large amount of QPF but it also shows a primary handing off to a secondary and a powerhouse type storm with dropping down to 985 mbs by 144 hrs. At 120 hrs 999 sitting right on SNJ and 132 just east of NYC at 990.
Have there been any other models that have trended towards the west as well?
Now the UKMET maps go in 24 hr increments but you can see where it is at 120 hours and where it is at 144 hrs and this too has trended well to the west and is in the same position as the GGEM at 144.
Now before all these models came along the GFS came out looking like this..
So the operational GFS is saying no to the above guidance or is it? Hold on and we will show you.
Before we show you what the GFS was trying to show let me show you the model that use to be the best model and has been having a hard time this year which would be the European Computer Model.
So far looks good…
What happened? Well the ECM misses the phase and it escapes east and in this case well east. Now..the rule that has been followed and has been working quite well is if the NOGAPS with that progressive bias is more WNW then the global models then those global models 9 out of 10 times will be wrong.
Remember i said lets see what the GFS was trying to do? While the operational messed things up ..the GFS means picks things up.
Ahhh now there you see the primary and the secondary.
Well, now there, we see a primary as well as a COASTAL HUGGING secondary…
And here we see a completed hand off and a more Western solution.
And finally by 144. Now, as you can see while the OPERATIONAL said NO..the Ensemble means says “Yes” and is completely similar to the GGEM/UKMET/NOGAPS.
Another thing to see & that is plainly clear is that the NOGAPS has been leading the way with this storm system. And finally, while not knowing what the ECM means show..its clear that the OP ECM/GFS are outliers.
We will continue to keep in place the level 1..however…if trends continue to go as they are we will be upgrading that level 1 to a level 2 later today!
Stay tuned as this storm has the potential to bring alot of QPF with it. This storm also has the potential to bring precipitation type issues to parts of the immediate coast.
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