We are briefly going to take a look at the guidance from 12 Z to 18 Z and then we are going to issue along with this guidance a special weather statement.
First model we are going to take a look at has been the model that we have been using as a guide. Keep in mind that this model is a progressive model with a southeast bias. So if any of the other guidance is taking a similar track you can pretty much figure that at 24 hrs out the models will trend more to the west Northwest.
Once, again if any guidance is further to the east then this model then we know that it will be coming back west more. So lets look at the rest of the guidance from 12 Z.
Basically you see that the 12 Z UKMET would actually be west of the 12 Z Nogaps so at this point and time this model is probably fairly close to accurate with its track depiction.
With the 12 Z GGEM we feel that pretty much at 48 hrs it is correct with the track of the low (although it will not be that depiction per say) at 60 hrs the GGEM however is too far to the east..this is probably occurring because prior runs were to far west ..so the model over compensated with its adjustment. At 72 hours, however..it makes up for this over adjustment and gets back within track range.
GFS has actually finally come on board with this system as well and has joined the rest of the camps with a very similar solution.
European Computer Model while we feel has probably the most accurate depiction of the track ..we feel that at 48 hrs it simply is not amped and organized enough. When you see the ECM means more amped and organized you know this will become stronger on future runs.
As is evident by the ensemble means above being alot more amped up then the operational run.
(Removed accuweather request)
As you can see by the above image the ECM has a very sharp cut off to its QPF shield. At this point and time we do not feel the cut off is going to be that sharp.
A brief look at 18 Z ..we are excluding the NAM because at 12 Z it was a slow outlier and it is no different with 18 Z run. The NAM will not become useful with this until about 24 hrs out. Again we are going to set the standard with this system by looking at the NOGAPS. When we say standard we are talking track wise.
As you can see this progressive se biased model has actually come in further to the N & west then its previous run and this is actually in line with our thinking.
Current thinking is that the models are not quite far enough west with this system & that in the last 24 hrs this will probably trend more to the N & W. So the track we are currently thinking would take it from the GOM along the coast and then rounding the corner inland and then be west of Hatteras inland. From there it will move on a NNE basis and track across DE. From that location it will move NNE and then track across Cape May NJ…and then NNE from there and track across Eastern LI and keep moving NNE and track across Cape Cod.
If this track is realized then..another map will be needed as this would end up sending more QPF to the N & the W. As it stands right now…we are expecting inland regions to receive a heavy wet snowfall. Travel will become impacted & roads will become snow covered & slippery. This is a snowfall that could potentially bring power lines down due to its wetness!
Current thinking..however this is subject to change with final issuance ! Stay tuned for more info on this latest winter storm!
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