So you thought this was going to be SIMPLE? Part 2

Take a deep breath and a ride with me thru the analysis of the 12 Z guidance…For this update i am simply going to transfer a post I made at American Weather Forums to here cause it hones down on the message of the hour..

Here is the problem that i have with some of the 12 Z guidance..

 

Now....I am not sure how I can make anyone understand this any clearer then what i am going to this go around.
GFS we know has a progressive bias. Can we agree here? So arguing a progressive bias would argue that it would be south and east in a coastal storm situation and could be that way up until 72 and under. And we potentially see that bias in place today as we seen the GFS actually come in more amped then its previous runs and digging the trough deeper.

 

Here is the GFS at 102 and as i said one could easily argue that it is showing its south and east bias. Or one could easily argue that since its going back more amplified it could actually be going back towards the solution that was easily wrapped up? Agree?
Now when we look at the rest of the guidance ...we see the GGEM is west ...and has a bomb , on the warm side..but then the GGEM can have a warm bias as well...
12 Z UKMET also has a strong storm and is a flag to the ECM because it is further to the west then the ECM appears to be from the play by play that I have written.
So basically without even talking about the NOGAPS yet we have a stronger..slower solution on two of the models (GGEM & UKMET) and another model (GFS) that is becoming slower & stronger & much further SW compared to its previous run. Compare 6 Z 108 versus 12 Z 102 and you get the comparison to what i said above.
Now lets suppose that blocking is in place ..because that is the seasonal trend.. which it has been but does not mean that because it has been that it will be in every particular instance of a storm. For sake of discussion lets suppose blocking is in place and we have a stronger high pressure over and north of Maine...

Which looking at this image above we see a high to the west and we see a high pressure to the east with some semblance of a connection to each other. If that high pressure is stronger then what most models have it...could that or would that not argue for a slower & stronger & more amplified system?
Now...lets finally turn attention to the Nogaps...
We see at 108 hrs that the low pressure is alot further to the SW then say for example the ECM which by 96 hrs has it all the way up off the MD coastline....
We seen with this most recent past system that the low pressure actually went up into C PA before reforming off the coast along the coast of SNJ. The only model that showed that NW track was indeed the NOGAPS until the 00z runs of the night while the storm was already in progress and it was snowing outside.
If the GFS progressive bias is leading to a South and East solution (though i believe its still catching up) ...& we know that the NOGAPS definitely has a south and east and even more progressive bias then the GFS...then one has to ask themselves :
Why is this very progressive southeast biased model actually slower then for example the GFS/ECM?
I guess that gives you something to think on