No Reason to Change Thinking!

We here at Real Wx Services have been getting all type of questions and criticism as to why are you using the NOGAPS? Its not quite as simple as why are we using the Nogaps..its more a matter of why is a model that is the most progressive SE biased model…showing such a wound up solution? As we have explained in past posts..the NOGAPS is useful in flagging other guidance. If the NOGAPS was well Southeast and the other guidance was well west or NW then that would indicate the NOGAPS is wrong. However..if & when a progressive SE biased model is wrapped up and more west or NW then other guidance then 9 out of ten times the other guidance if its too east is incorrect.

So lets take a look at the NOGAPS..

 

So we see at 12 Z the NOGAPS for 9 runs now has been consistent. What about 18 Z?

Once again we see it consistent so this is now 10 runs. But is the nogaps really alone ?

Last night the GGEM was showing a solution that was over SNJ and then over NYC. This was further west. At 12 Z it came slightly east but is still a good hit across the region.

So you can see that the GGEM even though slightly east is still further to the west then for example the 00z ECM or even the 12 Z ECM.

Lets look at the UKMET…

Ahhh here we see the UKMET is also well to the west and would be considered a coastal hugger. Now , the 12 Z ECM was still east of the region but it was west of last night but lets look at the ECM means..

Well now we see the ECM means is well west of the operational run. Matter of fact lets get some details about these means..

Euro ensembles are a big hit

Surface low tracks off the NJ coast at 114 hours..then over or maybe just inside the benchmark at 120. Well north and west of last nights 00z ensembles.

The Euro ensemble mean is clearly west of the operational. Variance is getting smaller. It's not a fan of the Miller B scenarios, but from what I can tell on the spag charts, there are quite a few members that go up the Appalachians or Susquehanna Valley. Not nearly as many OTS members this time around either. I'd call this a big win for us.

Well, yeah, some would imply an epic hit, some would be a graze, some would be p-type issues, some would be OTS

So it seems like the ECM OP is out of harmony with its means and if it is inside the benchmark and showing EPIC hits etc ..that this model is still playing catch up.

GFS was also still south and east as well but its means continue to be North and West of the operational. So with all the above evidence and the consistency of the NOGAPS being NW there is no reason to change any of the thinking in reference to the 11-13th!  Level 1 remains in place!

Stay tuned for more updates following 00z as well as a look at more snow tomorrow?