Let me state right from the beginning here that while overall the European Computer Model may be statistically the best model..this statistic of weather pattern verification has nothing to do with individual storms. There are too many pro mets & people that can not distinguish the difference. The truth of the matter is the ECM has been struggling this year with each & every storm & the reason we feel is the cause is because of the LA Nina.
I am going to start this off with showing the 12 Z Nogaps. Remember we said the two things you want to look for in the guidance is which models represent the pattern better and which models follow the greatest thermal gradient. So we are going to look at the 12 Z NOGAPS which the reason its first will become clear by the end of this post.
Notice how Northwest the position of the low pressure is? This model has been trending stronger ever since 00z last night with this system and continued the trend at 18 Z. Notice as well that the low pressure is also situated where the greatest thermal gradient would be. Now lets look at the rest of the guidance and see how it compares.
The above is the ECM which again wants to put this system out over top of the gulf stream. This is the same pattern it has been doing with storms all season long and its the same pattern that has been wrong all season long and it usually wakes up at about 48 hrs and under. The NOGAPS above is a huge red flag to the ECM.
Interestingly enough another red flag to the UKMET above which would support a moderate snowfall across the region. Further to the west and more in line with the thermal gradient but would be on the eastern edge of the western gradient. Notice also that the NOGAPS is still west of this model as well which means this too is a Red Flag to the UK..though the UK flags the ECM.
GGEM has been consistent with this storm in having a more N & W track . This is also consistent to what the NOGAPS is showing. Might even be slightly more NW of the Nogaps but with the Nogaps SE bias that could make sense then to have it slightly NW of it.
The GFS has been trending with a stronger storm each and every run and has been becoming steadily wetter as well with the system You can also see that this would be west of the ECM but still line up along that eastern edge of the western gulf stream and the NOGAPS is still west of this model.
12 Z NAM. As you can tell the 12 Z NAM is more in the CAMP of the GGEM/NOGAPS. It has a stronger storm and is further to the west. Again, because of where the NOGAPS actually has the low pressure system placed this again makes sense.
A look at the 18 Z Models..
18 Z GFS still on that eastern edge but its also deeper now with the low pressure then its 12 Z run which suggests that the GFS is still trying to play catch up with this system.
18 Z NAM is persistent and consistent with the further N & W track and while some say it has come south its more a matter of it has slowed in timing.
So as you can see ALL guidance is actually west of the EUROPEAN COMPUTER MODEL. Folks, whether this is the best statistically model or not..it means when it comes to the rest of the guidance it is the outlier. Now, ECM supporters will say its consistent…however, a model can be consistent and be consistently wrong.
You see the two models that are more N & W then the NOGAPS are at this time best representing the storm track and outcome. The rest of the guidance should before the event come further west and north with the area of low pressure.
At this point and time ..R.W.S is issuing a Level 2 Alert to “Be Prepared” which means that a significant Winter storm is on the near Horizon and will have an impact across the region. While its still too early to pinpoint specifics with accumulation ..the current thinking will be for 4-8 inches of snow across C PA, W C Maryland and then from Eastern PA and SE PA points NE 6-12 inches.
We will continue to fine tune this over the day or so ahead of this event! Stay tuned for more updates!
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