Models are Trending..however in the correct direction is the question?

Over the past day of model runs we have seen models trending in a direction where they are more disorganized and colder solutions and we actually see some agreement with the models. The question becomes do we actually believe the models though they seem to be in agreement?

Before we can answer that question lets look at the models at two different time frames. The hours we will be looking at is 72 hrs and 96 hrs.

GFS

Though surface images are not shown here they are indeed showing that the majority of the precipitation away from the big cities (50 miles N & W) would be in the form of snow or sleet & Zr ending as some drizzle. A strong CAD sig is shown on this model.

ECM

Interestingly enough the ECM also came in colder and quite similar to the GFS which would bring snow to the area changing over to ice and then probably ending as drizzle.

GGEM

GGEM would be pretty much the same scenario as the other two models with the one stand out exception is the coastal or secondary is further to the west.

UKMET generally lines up with the rest of the guidance and would bring the same general type precipitation across the area. So it seems like we have a general consensus on the models. So what is the problem?

There are a couple problems. First of all if you notice majority of the guidance above develops the coastal out well over the Atlantic Waters. That is problem #1 and the reason its a problem is because the greatest thermal gradient would not be that far west. Once again the greatest thermal gradient would be found on the western side of the gulf stream.

Second of all..what would cause the coastal to be so suppressed to the southeast as it is? The pattern does not support this suppression. Remember while we do have a negative AO trending to near neutral we do not have a negative NAO but also neutral. So there would be nothing to cause this coastal or secondary to be so far to the east by 200-400 miles.

So the question becomes do the models have any aspect of the modeling of the system correct? There are two aspects that are correct.

Aspect #1 we feel to be correct is this should contain alot of moisture. We are going to have moisture from the GOM and we are going to have moisture from the northern stream as well.

Aspect #2 we feel they have correct is the trend towards a colder solution. While this may NOT be a wrapped up system ..it will contain alot of moisture. Folks you do not need a wrapped up system to have a big storm!

So, basically look for this system to become better organized and also the coastal to be further to the west.

All one has to do is look at the 00z NOGAPS & one will realize that once again the rest of the guidance is to far to the east..

The place where i normally would get the images from (Americanwx) is actually down ATM..so you will just have to take my word on it is alot further west. 

Another reason is because the ECM op is completely out of harmony with its ensemble means but the one thing it does agree on is a colder look at the 850 level then before..

So, look for guidance to bring this system more to the west over the next day or so of modeling. We have no compelling reason to change the map that we have issued but we are compelled to issue a Level 1 Alert for the interior regions of PA, MD & NW NJ.

Stay tuned for further updates on this developing storm!