We here at R.W.S are not afraid to go against the grain. I think the readers of this blog understand that. Majority of the time when going against the grain we stand up to stronger criticism but we do not shy away from it either.
No other weather outlet would put a scenario map for a system that is about 4.5 days out like we have and stand by that scenario map.
We feel no compelling reason to change our thinking from what it has been with this system. The title of this blog is relevant to what the 00z models did this past evening. The site i normally use did not update the NOGAPS but the NOGAPS is still west…and yes west then all the other models still..however..we feel that it is overdoing that western extent on its 00z run.
We mentioned that we felt that the low would be off the coast at our latitude at no greater then 50 miles and that it could even run along on the eastern edge of the Jersey shore. We still feel that way & as you are about to see it has support now.
First just lets look at the 12 Z Nogaps since those are the last images I have available with the good graphics. This way we can just get a taste of what it has been saying as far as track is concerned,
Now mind you, at 12 Z today all models were east, Closest one to the NOGAPS lately has been the ECM, So lets look at 00z guidance tonight…
We are going to start with the GGEM. The GGEM has a big storm on the horizon but it is slower by about 24-36 hrs.
This model was well east at 12 Z. Next up is the UKMET..this model is also slower then the other guidance by about the same amount of time.
This model at 12 Z was also well east of the coast. Next up is the models of choice being blended together by HPC and that is the GFS followed by the ECM.
Images are pretty self explanatory and they generally support the coastal regions going from heavy snow to a heavy rain but inland and north of the big cities by about 50 miles the surface stays below freezing and it is a heavy wet snow with QPF ranges of 2.00+
Perhaps the greatest model of all here last night was the ECM with it also coming west and so far west that it actually takes the low across CAPE MAY NJ!
Well, if you were go back and read part 1 of this update I mentioned about it tracking potentially across the eastern edge of the NJ coast! The ECM also delivers to east central PA,KPHL and areas to the north in PA and back to pit between 2.00-2.50 inches liquid equivalent. We would be looking at very heavy snow with the potential of 2-3 feet!
Holy smokes and perhaps the greatest part of all is the ability once again to have the NOGAPS used as a forecasting tool to flag the global guidance for being too far east, as they all trended west to in some cases well west.
To show you that I am not out in left field with this at all but on top since 24 + hours ago..Here is HPC latest prelim maps..
So we see no compelling reason to change our thinking but rather our thinking thus far has been verified! We are issuing a level 2 for this system which basically means be prepared as all models are coming into agreement on the POTENTIAL for a MAJOR WINTER STORM.
Stay tuned for more updates & as always we like to stay one step ahead of the rest & if your friends are not yet here on this blog or our forum…send them the word !
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