Alright lets get right into it. First of all…I am amazed at some of the things that I read on the internet and some of these things are coming from mets with a red tag. If you do not know what a red tag means it means they are suppose to be a pro met but some of the things they are saying just have to make you shake your head in amazement & wonder.
Second of all, let me stress that one SHOULD NEVER look at a model and think that is the SOLUTION to happen. It does NOT work like that! Weather is a science and not a EXACT science. If it was an EXACT science perhaps then we could look at a model and its depiction and say “yes sir that is going to happen”..however its not & people including pro mets need to learn this simple fact.
Third of all ..one needs to turn to the pattern that is leading the way & the directions that any storm threats should follow.
Fourth of all , one needs to learn models biases & apply those biases in whatever way is necessary to formulate their thinking & thoughts .
If you are not doing any of the above then you have set yourself up for complete failure from the beginning. If you are not doing any of the above and you are a pro met , then i suggest handing your red tag in and going back to Basic Weather 101!
So lets look at last nights 00z guidance and then we are going to take a look at the pattern that is currently in place.
So here we see the 00z GGEM @ 120 hours with a 1037 High pressure to the North of Maine in Southeast Canada. Now what you do not see in this image is how the system tracks and if you go to the site you will see that it basically tracks the system over the Appalachian Mts. Folks, this is not likely to happen because it is rare for storms to track over the Appalachians as they like to take the path of least resistance which is either east of or west of the MTNS, Aside from that though you can see at 120 the low pressure is still down south.
Now lets look at another piece of guidance..
00z UKMET..ok so here we have a 1034 High pressure NE of Maine and a 997 low pressure area in the lakes and what appears to be a secondary forming off Hatteras. This is at 120 hours out. Notice the vast differences between the GGEM and the UKMET at 120.
Next up is the GFS.
00z GFS we see a 996 low over the lakes but we see absolutely no sign of any secondary with this model.Instead its a primary in the lakes This model does however show Cold Air Damming and a colder scenario despite its track and would be a snow to ice inland and Frozen to rain along the coastal plain! . Again, the GFS is vastly different from the GGEM which is vastly different from the UKMET.
On to the ECM
Here we see a Miller B depicted with the 850s plenty warm. No sign of any Cold Air Damming and what would be a rain storm.
And finally we will look at the 00z NOGAPS as it nailed the last event ..so we can not just ignore this particular model any longer.
This model has a completely different story as it is showing what would be plenty of moisture with 850s cold enough, the 540 line as well to the south and this would be supportive of a snowstorm!
So there we have all the models of the 00z suite and if you are completely honest with yourself you are going to throw your hands up and say…”each model is completely different, there is no agreement between them. Timing is different, S/Ws are different..track is different.” That is if you are honest!
So that is when we turn to the pattern. This is again where there is some misinformation being spread. First of all it is being said we have a positive NAO..actually we do not..
If you look at CPC..its actually neutral. with it expected to stay that way.
If you look at ERSL
Here it is negative expected to go to neutral. So either way you slice it and dice it up ..the result is not positive! Next up i seen mentioned is a + AO. Hello?
AO is negative and only expected to slowly rise towards neutral but stay negative. Some misinformation out there folks and we like to be straight shooters!
The PNA is negative but getting towards neutral expected to go positive .
Last signal is the EPO.
EPO currently is strongly negative but expected to rise! And the MJO is currently in phase 6 expected to travel into phase 7/8.
So what we actually have is a Neutral NAO Negative PNA trending Positive , negative AO, and a negative EPO.
Negative NAO with a –AO means cold air would be able to dig pretty far south. Neutral however would mean that the cold air would still be around just not able to dig as far south.
Negative EPO would mean a strong Southeast Ridge..which implies that no storm would be able to slide off the coast because of that ridge. However, its being counter acted by the – AO with the neutral NAO..to an extent.
Of course a rising PNA means that there will be an east coast trough.
So when you throw it all together what you should have is a pattern that would suggest that a wave could traverse across the country , not being able to dig to far south that would try to cut towards the lakes , however..because of confluence would hand off to a secondary. Then this secondary would move along the coast. Cold air? Will it be available? The neutral NAO & –AO implies that it would but it would not be able to dig as far south . In other words VA and points south ..would be to south…
So, at this point and time we have seen nothing that would steer or change thinking from what was presented in the scenario map. ECM generally has a warm bias, GFS generally picks up on CAD better and the area of where the secondary would develop would be where the greatest thermal gradient is. Again this is along the western side of the Gulf Stream.
One thing that is pretty well known at this point and is a certainty is that this system will contain alot of moisture. It appears right now that the coastal plain would be frozen (very short duration) to heavy rain. Other wise I-95 points south and east. To the North of there inland, a snow to wintery mix and inland further snow/sleet.
Stay tuned for further updates!
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