Models Coming To Agreement or Model Madness?

Sometimes you have to sit back, take a deep breath and just breathe when it comes to model guidance. That is essentially what I had to do today after viewing the models.

We had the ECM just 24 hrs ago show a East Coast Blizzard for this upcoming storm threat of Jan 6-9th. Since that time period it has backed down from that solution and has a much lighter snowfall across the region.

GFS virtually has been showing a system that develops too far east and does not bring any snowfall to pa and very little to NYC but shows a storm that takes a loop track aka a tropical system and delivers an intense storm to portions of SNE.

So lets look at the models and then see if we can figure out what is happening.

Ahh so we look at those images and it appears that we have come to an agreement? Not really! Each model may look the same or similar in placement of the area of low pressure but at H5 each run every 6 or 12 hours depending on the model has been keying in on different vorticity or pockets of energy. So the issue that has been continues to be and that is timing and small scale details but it is those small scale details that make a difference in ending results.

However…things begin to get a little more muddied in the waters then even what we see above.

Interesting huh? Ok , so if you are a weather newbie or a beginner at understanding everything about the models you are probably scratching your head and saying “that is the NOGAPS” what does it matter?

Well, the NOGAPS is known for having a SE bias and yet we see that the NOGAPS is actually west of all other guidance. It becomes even more interesting when you look at the GFS means, the GGEM means & now the ECM means and each means has actually come in more west then the earlier set of means.

So i ask myself why would the NOGAPS with that bias be so far west compared to other guidance? I think its because the NOGAPS is seeking out where the greatest thermal gradient would be. It only makes sense when you think that the warmest waters are from VA south and then contrast that to the colder air temperatures and their is the gradient.

So currently i see no reason to change the thinking that has been the going thinking of a light to moderate event for this first event..with the potential to be bigger if the players line up together correctly. It may just be under 48 hrs until we know the true solution! Meanwhile we use climatology and what has been working for the past 20 years!

Stay tuned for further updates on this interesting time period!