Historic Run on the 00z ECM..Another Blizzard? When? Where? Is this really possible?

Well now that the title got your attention lets look back at something from the last update that was posted earlier after 12 Z runs.

However..with so much energy out there involved in this complicated set up..and with the lesson learned from the past storm that blanketed the east coast with snow..It is entirely possible for this to become something more then what it currently looks.

If this is going to be a pure northern stream system then the energy we are watching is coming from a region with little to no RAOB data. If southern stream involvement becomes more prominent then we could be dealing with a completely different evolution.

So at this time the best call is for a light snow event with the potential bigger event occurring after this one ..and in the meantime we watch the models for any changes to occur that would change the evolution of this system.

 

Notice we mention right off the back a complicated set up and alot of energy involved and we also mention about recent history and what it has taught us with the models as guidance.

Let me place this disclaimer here that this run of the European Computer Model is completely Historic in all aspects & completely points out the patterns capability if the pieces of the puzzle morph together at the correct time. There is alot of talk from some pro mets that are saying that this run of the ECM has 0% chance of verifying. I completely disagree with them and will show you why indeed this run of the ECM is possible. Before we do that though lets look at other guidance.

00z GFS at 120 hours. When one looks at the GFS the first thing one notices is that each run it has been focusing on a different piece of energy and this is probably highly due to it having so many pieces of energy in the flow around the Polar Vortex it does not know which to focus on so we have seen a different run every 6 hrs.

00z GGEM at 120 hours pretty similar to the GFS with the exception it shows a piece of energy that is over southern Ohio that moves due east and intensifies off the coast and drops a light snow event from Southern Pa to DC…

00z UKMET at 120 hours. While you can discern absolutely nothing from this image above other then the position at 120 hrs ..the following two images will show that the UKMET does indeed develop a secondary further to the south off the delmarva or south of there even..

So you can see that looking at all the models above that there is really no harmony as the timing of small scale details continues to be a disagreement.

Now as you look at the ECM keep in mind the following image which is not the ECM ..;)

Yep that is indeed the 00z NOGAPS and notice its proximity to the coast (though faster) and look at how east some of the guidance is. Red flag? It could be.

Now lets move on to the European Computer Model and we will show you exactly what it displays and why it has trended this way. This was the 12 Z Ensemble means..

This was the 12 Z Operational run..

Interesting enough what you see there is not all that far off from its ensemble means ..with one MAJOR exception. The means was more west and more amped up.

SO lets look at tonights 00z European Computer Model..

Yes, you are viewing the 00z ECM and tonight’s model run just showed an east coast blizzard!

 pink 2-2.5
white 1.75-2
dark blue 1.5-1.75
lgt green 1.25-1.5
green 1-1.25

Now…it should not be a surprise that the ECM actually trended further west with this system since that is what its means were showing. It should also not be a surprise to see this type of solution in a pattern such as one where all the models agree on Epic Blocking and the blocking retrograding into North central Canada.

However, at the same time..the European Computer model is the outlier. On the same token the other guidance still can not agree on the small scale details. I believe the ECM is showing the potential that exists in this type of pattern & that potential is one that I can not just discard and say has a 0% chance of happening because it is an outlier.

I also would not be surprised if the ECM means did not have as robust of a solution as the OP run because it does contain 52 members.  However, on the same token I would be shocked if the means was not more SW then the 12 Z means and more amplified & if this is the case then this does indeed lead some credence to what the OP model is showing.

Remember folks its about the pattern & its the pattern that drives the weather. Not the other way around.

Stay tuned for further information on this potentially interesting time period ahead!