A few points I want to address before I get into the update based off the 00z model runs.
One of the major keys to forecasting the weather ..whether we are talking short range or long range forecasting is realizing that the pattern drives the weather! The teleconnections that are largely overlooked drives the weather & not the other way around.
Tonight I was reading once again on the internet how in reference to what the 00z models are showing for the first event is not climatologically possible in a Strong La Nina! However, the second storm being suppressed on all Major Models is because of the blocking and this not being a typical La Nina! These are the type of statements I am reading across the internet thru various forums etc.
As is always the case we are going to address these areas so the readers are aware of what is true and what is not true. So lets take a look at what is not suppose to happen in a strong La Nina..
1. We are not suppose to be able to have a Blizzard that drops anywhere from 12 inches to 24 inches plus along the east coast from an enhanced southern stream system due to a northern stream phase.
2. The Southeast is not suppose to be negative 12-negative 15 in temperature departures.
These two above things are NOT suppose to happen according to climatological measures of a strong La Nina.
Reality is that this above has been a recap of the first month of winter of December 2010-2011 ..so I think it is safe to say that this is not your typical La Nina winter & that winter is not solely controlled by ENSO status!
Lets take it one step further and let the truth be known that since we just ended the month of December ..the ENSO state is actually NOT a strong LA Nina but rather a moderate La Nina.
If you click on the link above you will see that the ENSO status since the last set of trimonthlies , which was SON ..has not increased in strength but rather maintained. Of course this little known truth is kept silent because it does not feed the agenda of those who were using the ENSO status of a Strong La Nina as there reason for a warm forecast for the winter.
So, recognizing the pattern is actually key to your forecasting whether it be short range or long range and also a knowledge of knowing that the signals such as –NAO, –AO & –EPO & + PNA etc can trump the ENSO state.
The pattern that December had which was one of blocking & –NAO & –AO is still the same pattern that is in place. Shortly the block will be switching to a strong –EPO block but never the less..blocking has been in place in one way, shape , form or another.
This means that the month of January has the potential to be a very cold month..and the potential to be a very snowy month with the pacific becoming active!
Bringing this back to the near term situation..we had mentioned that we were expecting the Inverted Trough feature to come back more to the SW because we were using the red flag of the Nogaps to flag the rest of the guidance.
So lets look at the 00z guidance..and we are going to look at the QPF images from all guidance minus the ECM because those images are not available. However..the ECM is very comparable to the other guidance.
GFS
GGEM
UKMET have 12 hr jumps with their images so we will just use 72 hrs (furthest the precip maps go) to show the axis of the inverted trough.
So as you can see ALL guidance has indeed shifted this feature to the Southwest as pretty much we anticipated to happen. So at this point and time we see no reason to change the map that we had created yesterday already as it pretty much incorporated this ideal at the time..
You may have seen that the second event slated for the time frame of the 11-13th has taken a suppressed south and east and OTS look on the Major Global Models. At this point and time this is what they are saying…However..i raise the red flag once again & fully expect this system to trend back North & West as well. First the GFS means have the system N & W with as many as 6 members (half) showing a decent snowfall. Second is the red flag that we have been using for quite a few years and that would be the Navy Nogaps at 144 hrs.
Remember this model is the model that has the most progressive Bias & South and east bias and it is further to the N & W..So look for this second event to still be a threat and at some point come back to the west!
That’s all for now folks will update this potential and the second potential after 12 Z runs later today!
Remember guys & gals its about pattern recognition & the teleconnection’s and not La Nina climatology!
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