Earlier yesterday we touched on this time frame and at that point and time we gave out two different scenarios that were possible.
1. Scenario #1 was suppression! With the PNA positive, the AO negative + the NAO negative ..and the surge of Arctic Air ..we put this scenario on the table & we put it as the most likely scenario.
2. Scenario #2 was a East Coast Storm!
At the same time we also mentioned that some mets were talking about how the pattern supports a cutter! This we said was 100% BS & we still take that stand.
Folks it is pretty simple if the pattern does not support something and the guidance does not show something then they are simply MAKING THINGS UP!
So lets look at the guidance tonight and see where we stand with this time frame..
GFS does have a storm at the time frame of 132-144 hrs. It delivers a very light snowfall in the Mid Atlantic into SNE and then moves away from the region. The GFS actually looks like the means of the ECM from 12 Z yesterday. Showing a Miller B potential.
However….
00z GGEM which was showing a storm to the south and east yesterday at 12 Z now simply has no storm at this time frame.
UKMET also shows no storm in this time frame.
ECM does have a storm ..however..precipitation gets as far North as DC before it slides this storm OTS.
So essentially what you have is the GFS backing up the ECM from 12 Z yesterday…while the ECM actually now suppresses the storm. So much like the ECM yesterday was on its own at 12 Z with the snowstorm effecting the east coast…The GFS at this time is also on its own & would be considered an outlier.
But the model madness with the ECM does not stop there. While it loses the storm at 144 hrs because the Northern Stream ends up being to over powering ..it leaves a piece of energy behind and develops another low over the panhandle of FL and then moves this low pressure up along the eastern seaboard and gets captured at H5 and delivers a Major East Coast Snowstorm but not till 24 + hours later between 168-186 hrs out.
So it suppresses one and then creates another, Notice how it creates it though? It creates it out of energy left behind or held back in the SW which is one of its biases. So what happens if you take away that energy left behind by the models bias?
This folks is called “ LOOKING INTO THE MODELS” ..
You are left with no storm along the east coast and the ECM Operational all alone. So lets see what the ECM means do. Do they support the Op?
The answer to this question is no. The storm at 144 hrs is suppressed. The storm at 168-186 hrs does not exist!
Well lets briefly look at the rest of guidance which leaves the GGEM and GFS for the later time period that the OP ECM shows a storm. Does it have any other kind of model support?
GFS has a weak northern stream clipper that may bring some light snows.
00z GGEM does have a storm once again down to the south that does move up to effect the region but not till a much later time frame.
So, all the above tells us that at the most right now this period is something to watch but that is about it at this time. Suppression seems like the most likely option . However, the pattern is favorable for an east coast storm at the same time. Just right now..it seems like the frigid air will be too overpowering and squashing any event!
We will keep you updated and this is why we are ahead of the rest because we bring it to you as it is & not as we want!
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