January 20-22nd Updated Thoughts!

Folks lets be perfectly clear here! If a model shows a solution that has no other support…one can not realistically take that solution for what it is showing.

For the second run in a row now…the European Computer Guidance is showing a Major East Coast Snow/ICE storm at 168 hrs out from 12 Z. Last nights 00z ECM OP also showed the same type of solution. However, as we seen the ECM means was well to the east…

The way this model creates this storm is it leaves energy behind in the SW from the first system that passes south and east at 144 hours….

This left over piece of energy then gets ejected from the SW and the northern stream hooks up with it and turns it up the eastern seaboard so that from about 156-74 hours it is delivering over a FOOT of snow in the mid atlantic to the Northeast.

However…does other guidance support this? Or is this storm simply a illusion developed from energy that should have been with the first system? Well lets look at the guidance…

GGEM

Should be noted that the GGEM does not show an east coast storm at 168 hrs. However..it does show a system that grazes the east coast from 120-144 hrs.

GFS..well here we do see an area of low pressure but once you go to the precipitation image you realize that this too looks nothing like the ECM..

18 Z GFS

Here we see an area of low pressure which is well to the South and if this were to come up the coast it would be a entirely different storm and an even later time frame.

However..the GFS does also develop a system between 120-144 hrs ..but it generally remains south and east of the region with only some very light snowshowers in the region.

Now the ECM ..followed by the ECM means..

There we see it. There is the heavy snowstorm and ice storm in some areas across the region.

However…just like last night..the ECM means are well to the east with the system. And as you can see by above as well..there is actually no support outside the operational ECM model for a snowstorm to effect the region at 168 hrs out.

There is the potential that the pattern could produce a snowstorm between 120-144 hrs but that would not be the same system the ECM shows above as it has that one slide off south and east.

So our stance has not changed from the two scenarios we talked about and laid out on the table.

1. Suppression due to the overwhelming cold pattern..

2. A Major East Coast Storm..

To see that we are not the only ones that are saying this (though we have been saying it longer)…Pro Met DT at wxrisk.com states the following (from his FB page)

Wxrisk.com There are 2 POSSIBLE solutions... A) FLAT wave of Low Pressure that only affects NC and VA B) the Bigger Low which affect everyone from northeast GA to nc with ice and snow from VA to Maine

Pure speculation would be if it did not hold back the energy that produces the storm at 168 hrs.. if the storm that slides South and East (flat wave) at 120-144 hrs would not therefore be a stronger storm and up the eastern seaboard?

Something we will have to keep an eye on! However…for now all eyes are just watching and waiting!