Even though we are still approaching the first storm, which takes priority..I feel the need to address the second storm that many are talking about on the internet between Jan 20-22nd. There is talk going around that the pattern reflects a Great Lakes Cutter and this is what we could be expecting..
FOLKS this is UTTER BS…Either two scenarios are possible at this time.
1. Suppression. Simply majority of guidance is showing a –NAO, –AO + PNA with some extremely cold air in place and coming in.
2. A storm coming up the eastern sea board with plenty of cold air available!
Lets see HPC for this:
A SECOND VERY STRONG COLD
SURGE DROPPING THRU THE NRN PLAINS DAY 5 THURSDAY AND DRIVING TO
THE EAST COAST DAY 6 AND 7 FRI/SAT WITH SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR
THIS SEASON AS REFLECTED BY THICKNESS VALUES AND H850 TEMPS.
HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THE PATTERN BY NEXT WEEKEND AS INDICATED BY
TELECONNECTIONS/FORECAST MJO INDEX ENTERING PHASE 7 AND 8/
POSITIVE PNA AND NEG AO/NAO PATTERNS AND GOOD OPERATIONAL AND
ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT YIELDING A MILD WRN CONUS AND FRIGID EAST.
WIDESPREAD AREAS OF SINGLE DIGIT AND BELOW ZERO LOW TEMPERATURES
CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN QUARTER OF CONUS NEXT
WEEKEND.
Now lets look at the models and see what they are showing:
GFS shows no storm at this time frame.
UKMET shows no storm at this time frame..
GGEM does show a storm well south over Alabama but ends up like this..
Well south and east. The only model to show a storm at this time frame effecting the east coast is the 12 Z ECM.
Folks one thing is clear…the ECM is an outlier at this point and time. Does it mean its wrong? No.
However, there is nothing and i mean NOTHING to support the fables that are being said on the internet and majority of it coming from a Pro Met!
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