So You Thought It Was Going To Be Simple?

The very first image I am going to start with is actually going to just blow your mind away. And the very last sentence that i end this discussion with could leave you flabbergasted! And the in between discussion we hope answers your questions you may be having.

So what is going on with January 25-26? So many twists & turns in the guidance..not changes per say that reflect in the surface as much as changes at H5 level. Almost every model last night had some changes at H5 (500 mb level)

So lets put that first image up so you can get in a proper perspective state of mind.

(Edited Accuweather complained of use of them)

Now…what you are looking at above there is the ECM QPF map for the storm that we are talking about! Blown away?

Before we look at the ECM though lets look at the rest of the guidance tonight…Tonight first on the order of agenda is the GGEM…

Now as you can see the GGEM is in the same location as its 12 Z run was when it is south of Pennsylvania. You might have heard that the GGEM went east! Well let me put that untruth to rest as you can see looking at the 12 Z image before when the GGEM was at that latitude ..it actually went a slight tick west..

However..even though it went a slight tick west it managed to become colder aloft then the 12 Z was. Now what the GGEM did do is it became a slight bit faster. But notice that we are still developing what would be a Miller A solution on the GGEM.

Next up is the UKMET…

Now the UKMET did indeed trend more to the east. There is no qualms about that..however it is also not Out To Sea. So again some misinformation going on across the internet. The other thing to consider is that its 12 Z run yesterday was also a slow outlier. It was slower then the ECM and it was slower then the GGEM which put it really far inland! So it was only natural for it to trend more east because it was to far west..However..IMO it over compensated for its adjustment. Will show why then we think this shortly!

Next up on the list of guidance is the GFS.

These are hrs 90 & 108. Faster then a speeding bullet, faster then even superman is the GFS as it just literally flies thru time with this system. So fast that by 120 hrs its GONE! Now wait a second…did i mention the fact that the UK/GGEM all have a low coming out of the GOM or a Miller A? Did i mention the fact that the GFS is a Miller B with a norlun type trough depiction? Ok moving on as we toss this model into the recycling bin because its a fast outlier compared to the rest of guidance & its evolution of the storm is not accurate either.

Now lets move on to the Nogaps! Ahh the valuable tool that so many do not understand & the reason they do not understand it is because they do not incorporate it into there thinking process. So they are not familiar with how the bias works.

So what do we know about the Nogaps? Well we know that it has a very progressive bias and we know it has a SE bias when it comes to coastals. This is why the images above do not spread the QPF more westwards like the GGEM and the ECM. However…here is a thought to ponder…

1. With the progressive bias of the NOGAPS..does it make sense that it is also a slower moving system? After all its bias should be moving much quicker.

2. Notice though as well that the GFS is east of where the NOGAPS is? So this is just one more reason to discard the GFS into that recycling bin.

However, could the fact that the NOGAPS is slower (and its bias is progressive) be a hint that this storm will be slower then what the latest guidance tonight is suggesting? In other words..the guidance has trended quicker with the storms progression (not as quick as the GFS though) ..but could it be hinting it will be slower?

Now lets look at the only model left and it belongs with the image that started this discussion.

Now..we see here at 96 hrs that the 850s are certainly cold enough and supportive of snow if there was any QPF falling at that time. And we see at 120 hrs that the 850s are alos cold enough for snow. However, what we do not see is the in between hours…but I do have access to them and verbatim what the ECM is suggesting is the big cities are mainly rain. However…again there is some false information going around on the internet in reference to what the ECM shows in between hours and this is because the people giving the information are in the region that is rain on the ECM. From I-78 North on the 00z ECM the temperatures at 850 never get above freezing. Thats right they never get above freezing. What about the surface temps ?

1. At hour 108 the surface temps from I 78 N and west are 30-35 degrees. SE of there 35-40 and in southern NJ 40-45.

2. 114 hrs.. 35-40 has crashed back into SW southern NJ but the big cities are still in that range. North and west of from 78 they are once again 30-35.

3. 120 hrs the 30-35 line has gone back thru the big cities and SNJ is now 35-40

4. 126 hrs the temps are in the 20s inland and 30s to the NJ coast…

So you can clearly see that the ECM is not all rain….it is rain for the big cities ..but with 850s at or below freezing i 78 & points N & W and into NW NJ ..this would be a heavy wet snow!

So, we see no reason to change our thinking at this point and present time from what it has been. We still think that this should track about 50 miles or less of the east coast. There is a possibility that this could trend colder yet…and cold enough for all snow even in the big cities. We are keeping the level 2 Alert in place with the models offering up a large amount of QPF (look above) ..

Now , remember i said I would leave you flabbergasted with the last sentence of this discussion?

ECM means…

Words from Pro Met Will…

Just SE of ACK at 120h. Definitely some bagginess in the isobars to the SW suggesting that there are def some amped up members that look closer tot he op run.
If the ensemble mean verified though, everyone would stay snow.

Now look at the very first image above and think about what the means suggest!