January 6-8th Light Event? Non Event? Or More?

The reason that Real Wx Services is different from anything else out there on the net is because we look at the models with a perspective beyond our backyards. We also look “into’ the models and try to figure out what they are trying to show. We also try an pinpoint the model errors for our readers and followers.

With that said ..we mentioned some things to look out for on  the model runs and in particular the GFS. Would there be southern stream involvement with a S/W? Would the southern stream S/W then phase with the Northern Stream clipper?  This is what we need in order to have a Major East Coast Snowstorm.

The pattern like we said is agreed upon by all the global models but the devil is in the small scale details.

As of today the 12 Z GFS now keeps the southern stream basically morphed out of the equation so it is now all Northern stream dependent.

Obviously what we have here on the GFS is a totally and completely different evolution from 00z. This is northern stream dependent and redevelops the clipper further to the north.

Above is an 850 view of 120 hours. As we mentioned this is a completely different solution and i believe we warned last night that we would see another solution again at 12 Z.

12 Z UKMET and 12 Z ECM. 12 Z ECM has actually come back more to the southwest from its previous run and brings a light snowfall to the region and then a more moderate snowstorm to SNE and into Maine it gets to be on the heavier side. Still some differences remain between the UKMET and the ECM though.

The above is the 12 Z GGEM which is well east with the system at 120 hrs but the system to the west of the region then also brings in some light snowfall PA and north.

So, as one can see when we look at the guidance..if one is honest with oneself the solutions are still all over the place. And then we have yet still the 12 Z NOGAPS..

Which this model is still North and west of majority of the other guidance. Again this could serve as a red flag to the other guidance that we still have not seen the final solution.

At the present time it appears as though the best bet would be for a light snowfall across most of the region as the flow is fairly progressive off the pacific despite the blocking that is in place to the north . The area that seems to be at the present time more suitable for a heavier snowstorm would be southern new england into the Northeast.

However..with so much energy out there involved in this complicated set up..and with the lesson learned from the past storm that blanketed the east coast with snow..It is entirely possible for this to become something more then what it currently looks.

If this is going to be a pure northern stream system then the energy we are watching is coming from a region with little to no RAOB data. If southern stream involvement becomes more prominent then we could be dealing with a completely different evolution.

So at this time the best call is for a light snow event with the potential bigger event occurring after this one ..and in the meantime we watch the models for any changes to occur that would change the evolution of this system.

If this system does not become something bigger ..let me be clear that the reason it does not happen is not because of something that a person wanted or did not want to occur but rather because the timing of the players on the field did not morph together!