Time: 2:30 AM
Date: 1/11/11
Areas covered : Eastern PA…SE PA De, Extreme Eastern MD, All of NJ, SE NY, into Southern New England.
Real Wx Services is continuing a Level 3 RUH ROH . This means that a significant storm is likely within the next 24 hrs.
Low pressure currently along the coast of SE GA..will move up the eastern seaboard..hugging the coast as it does. At the same time a northern stream piece of energy , an upper level closed low will be moving towards SW PA. This closed low will serve to hand off its energy to the coastal low as it moves up the coast and pass very close to ACY. This low should be about 50 miles off the coast. It will be relatively a quick hitter but it has the potential to rapidly deepen.
This will make this more of a compact storm. Similar to the boxing day blizzard in the sense of being compact.
We have analyzed the models and we feel that the best thing to do at this point and time is take a blend of the following models:
00z ECM & 12 Z Ensembles
00z NAM
00z GFS ensembles
Suny MM5, AWR, NMM, RGEM
There will be a very sharp cut off once again however this time with a primary there will be snowfall further to the west. Unfortunately when a primary transfers to a coastal there is an area that gets more in the way of dry slotted and that is the reason for the yellow zone.
We expect the snow to start tuesday afternoon and taper off by early wednesday morning.We are looking at about 12 hrs or so of snowfall of which the heaviest till fall at night and the roads will become snowcovered quickly!
With these type of systems the track can be a little bit erratic ..so their is still a chance that we could end up with a slightly further west track.
Stay tuned for further updates on this developing storm!
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