Just as soon as one storm ends the tracking of another begins. Yes it is true that before this time frame comes we will have two clipper systems that will pass thru the region. However, for the most part these clipper systems will struggle to make it over the Mountains and any accumulations would be light ..on the order of a T to an inch or two. So with those not amounting to much our attention turns to Feb 2-4th.
The talk of the internet. Earlier yesterday afternoon there was talk of this being similar to 1996. This completely is not true and is a total fabrication. Set up is not the same and neither is the 500 mb pattern being modeled. This system on the models has gone from a Great Lakes Cutter to a South and east solution and now as of 00z this system has gone to basically a low pressure area in the SW that travels on a ENE track across the country. Of course there are timing /phasing issues ..however this is to be expected.
Now what I want to do is I want to show you the 00z guidance and some of the ensemble means as well but on each of the models at 120 hours you are going to notice that something is circled on these maps. Pay close attention cause this is an ALL important detail to trying to figure this out.
So lets look at the model guidance tonight…First up is the GFS..
Ok here is 120 hrs and we can see an area of low pressure getting organized over the southwest around Tx. We also see off to the North/Northwest of this area of low pressure two strong areas of high pressure of which behind these highs are arctic air. Arctic Air is cold deep dense air that likes to press south and southeast. This is because cold air is sinking air. Keep this thought in mind as you view the rest of the images and the rest of the guidance.
As you can see the system rides from the Southwest East North East and goes off around the SNJ coastline. While 850s rise across the southern side the surface remains below freezing. Does the GFS OP have support from its means? Completely!
As you can see it is very similar in track just slightly colder then the OP at the 850 level. All in all this would be conducive of another Significant snowstorm across the east.
GGEM is next..
At 120 hours we see that circled in the upper right hand panel is also an area of high pressure around 1050 or so MBS. You can see a moisture loaded system as well..
Here to we see the SW to ENE movement ..
Now here, we see a system that is much further to the North then for example the GFS. However, one should also understand that this has also come south and east from its 12 Z run and is actually trending towards its means from 12 Z..
Matter of fact an argument could be made that the 00z op of the GGEM looks exactly like 12 Z GGEM means but the means are colder then the op. 00z means have not come out yet..but chances are that they too probably are going to be further to the south and to the east. This would then put it more in line with the GFS..
Next up is the UKMET @ 120 hrs
Here as well we also see a strong area of high pressure..
At 132 hrs it is over E TN …and at 144 hrs we find it to the east of Maine..
Next model up is 120 hr ECM and for this we turn to ewall for the image because the normal sites image that i use, was messed up with the graphics.
Here to we see the same area of high pressure similar in strength…and we are missing the in between hours and tonight my source has not yet updated that would show them but at 144 hrs it has the primary low close to W PA ..
However you can also see some indication of another area of low pressure off the jersey coast. Now when you look at all the guidance you see a very strong area of high pressure to the NW of the low pressure area at 120 hrs. This high pressure which is pushing south and east with its confluence would essentially force this system to move off towards the ENE as majority of the guidance shows it. It can not cut up into the lakes because of that force of air coming down on the backside against the system.
Now one must understand that none of the models show a lakes cutter and there is no low pressure going into SE canada on the ECM here. Instead the model is simply showing a further N solution before it would have to redevelop off the Jersey coast line. On the ECM it ends up off of Cape Cod by 150 hrs.
You also notice that the area of high pressure over the NE on the UK and the ECM is already well off the coast. This is what allows the low pressure to take that more northern track..but notice how the UK while agreeing with the ECM in that high pressure area takes the primary into E TN and then starts to redevelop it off the coast at 132 hrs. It does not get as far North as the ECM. Also at 120 hrs the ECM is alot slower then what the UK is.
One more model to take a look at ..
00z NOGAPS. Notice this too has an area of high pressure to the NW and also notice the location of the high pressure to the NE of the low.
You can see this too goes on the ENE track and ends up basically over C NJ. From there it ends up around the CAPE COD region.
Perhaps the most important question is what does the pattern support? Currently the MJO is in phase 8 heading towards phase 1. Phase 1 would be supportive of normal temperatures across the east/NE with below normal in the west and a SE ridge in place. This means we would not have a storm sliding off the southeast coast and is why models moved away from that scenario.
We still have a positive PNA however which would be supportive of a trough along the east coast. NAO + AO however..are both neutral essentially during this period. So all the teleconnections point to something that would be more like a bowling ball system that would go from the SW to the ENE and be relatively inland and then either hugging the coast or inland as it makes the turn.
We think essentially right now that we would be taking a track from the SW towards the ENE into E KY across N central VA and then across Southern NJ and then along the coast perhaps crossing very near or just inland of Cape Cod.
We also feel initially that the area of high pressure will be stronger over the NE at 120 hrs and then this will begin to slide eastward but will leave colder air trapped at the surface so that it will turn the cities over from snow to ice and southern NJ will go from wintery mix to a rain and further inland it will be cold enough to support all snow.
This will have a lot of moisture to work with so if the above very early preliminary scenario does play out then we could be looking at a Significant East Coast storm once again. We do not think with that strong area of high pressure coming down on the backside and pressing south and east that this would be able to cut into the lakes…So we feel , right now, that a GLC is not on the table. Stay tuned for more information on this developing system!
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