Feb 5 & 6th and Beyond

After a little hiatus beyond our control at Real Wx Services…we are back and looks like we came back into some mass model confusion.

 First things first ..Feb 5-6th . We currently have an area of low pressure developing in the GOM and this area of low pressure should generally move to a position near Hatteras. From there this low pressure should ride up along the eastern seaboard. Meanwhile at the same time there is also a primary low that appears to be over ARK..this is also going to be moving off to the NE and should end up somewhere near the western PA /MD border. Current thinking is that the primary could remain stronger then the coastal low and hence the warmer scenario being shown.

The primary hanging on stronger will cause more warm air advection in the upper levels. Overall the thinking is that this will not be an impressive storm system generally on the light side…

Now next on the list is Monday to Tuesday and the potential for yet another low to move in from the west and a low potentially forming off the coast…

Now this actually has a high pressure in better position to the north and this does appear at least in the upper levels it could be colder then the current system. GFS is similar but it also appears to be about 12 hrs faster then the ECM.

So we have two chances at some wintery precipitation thru tuesday and then the question becomes what happens after that?

We have gone from models showing a large storm that would be along the order of 1-2 feet and most recently we have gone to models showing a more easterly or southeasterly solution.

So what does the pattern actually suggest? And what type of pattern change is forthcoming if any?

The pattern above shows that we have a positive AO. What this implies is that the cold air will not be all that abundant. The NAO is also being shown as positive and maybe heading towards neutral. This also suggests that cold air will be around but also not all that strong. PNA is positive but heading towards negative. What this means is that the trough should still be along the east coast but will not be as deep as what it has been previously. Then in addition to this is the Negative EPO which suggests that a SE ridge or bermuda high should be in place.

Now what does this all mean when it comes to the present modeling?

Lets look at the modeling from 12 Z and 18 Z

We feel that the GFS at this present time is playing right into its bias. That bias is being too fast or progressive and we also feel that it is over doing the extent of the cold air considering the connectors above.

12 Z ECM

Here at 144 hrs we see that the ECM still has the system in the GOM.

Now lets look at another very progressive model with a very well known SE BIAS…

Once again ..I find it pretty amazing that a more progressive biased model is actually slower then the GFS. Now..at 12 Z and 18 Z the NOGAPS takes this system off the coast south and east almost AKA the GFS but timing is slower obviously..

However..they end up in relatively the same spot overall. This is a major red flag that the GFS is not correct in its solution. Now the ECM does bring this system up the coast and brings it fairly close to the coast about 100 miles. It also would be a wintery mix in southern New Jersey  & DE etc with QPF getting about as far west as Central PA. It would generally bring snow to inland locations.

GGEM has a system further to the N but from this point it essentially ends up South and east as well.

The UKMET only goes to 144 hrs

Slightly more progressive then the NOGAPS/ECM/GGEM but one can tell that the GFS is the most progressive of all the models and the flattest solution as well.

Judging from the teleconnections in place I would argue for a solution closer to the ECM at this present time and perhaps even more running along the eastern side of the Appalachians and being an inland runner.

We do not feel that the solutions currently being shown are actually portraying what the teleconnections would be portraying. After all, the next two systems all have a primary heading to the NE to the west and a secondary along the coast. These storms for the most part are also warmer then the storms of the recent past. The teleconnections for this potential storm are going to be no different then what they currently are for the weekend system.

Pattern change? If there is to be a pattern change then we are to see a large type storm system. Almost every pattern change that has occurred has been accompanied by a large storm. At this point and time we feel the pattern change that may be upcoming is more a continuation of a gradient type pattern that we are in. Gradient meaning temperatures from I-95 south and east would be more supportive of mainly rain and or wintery mix while areas further inland would be more typical of snow.

We will continue to monitor all three of these potential systems over the days ahead!