Last nights 00z ECM takes the primary area of low pressure into Ohio by 174 hours.By 180 hrs it is now over SW PA but has started transferring to a coastal low at 174 hrs..which at 180 hrs is located about 50 miles east of SNJ. From there the low pressure moves ENE. The 00z ECM is cold enough for majority of the region from just North of KPHL to be mainly an all snow event. Cities such as KPHL would probably be a wintery mix to snow ..NYC looks to be all snow…and in MD it looks like it would be along the lines of a wintery mix as well. Temperatures are mainly in the 20s or 30s.
At this point and time we are only giving model interpretation and not an actual forecast. This interpretation is based on the 850s and surface temps and precip maps every 6 hrs. So it is the model verbatim.
Basically what appears to be looking likely is that if you are on the north side of the Polar Boundary then you will be in the region that would be cold enough for frozen precipitation. If you are south of that boundary then you would be mainly rain. It is way to early to know where this polar boundary will set up but one thing is obvious…there is a threat on the table …and winter is set to return!
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