Spring is Springing but Does Winter Have a Last Stand?

Spring is around the corner. Matter of fact we are only approximately 19 days away from the first day of spring. We have had temperatures recently to remind us that spring is indeed springing upon us…however…we must keep in mind that spring has not sprung yet and we technically are still in winter & is it possible that winter could take one last stand?

So lets look at the guidance for the period of March 6-8th,,

Now the above is the ECM and what the ECM does is it brings a primary up and towards the west of the region while bringing a cold front across the region. Then at 168 hours out another wave forms on that cold front and then moves up and along that cold front between 168 and 192 hours.

Now keep in mind when looking at the above that this was actually stated on this blog back on the 26th…

A more likely scenario is that there will be a northern area of low pressure that moves thru with an attending cold front with colder air behind that front. On that front a wave could potentially form and move up and along that front. The question then becomes how far east does that front make it? And what side of the front would the region lie on? Again all we are doing is speculating on the guidance above with the teleconnections that are in place at the time.

Now, as you can see on the 18 Z GFS..the GFS is also very similar in its depiction with the difference of the GFS does not bring the cold front all the way east..hence it is slightly warmer and there is no QPF on the western side of the storm system.

The means of the GFS however..seem to be more in agreement with the ECM.

So at this point and time the GFS means and the ECM are in fairly good agreement.

If we look at the GGEM..

You can see it to has the same general concept with a wave and the cold front..with the secondary wave but it appears as though the GGEM could be playing into its biases of over phasing the energies that are involved.

So, while spring may be in the process of springing upon us ..it may be prudent to step back and watch the guidance to see if winter does indeed have one last stand and perhaps one last surprise for portions of the mid atlantic into the Northeast!