Just a quick brief update on this time period from the 00z ECM. It now has the system in two pieces instead of one piece of energy. First one moves. First one comes thru between 156 and 168 hrs out which is Sunday. Temperatures thru out the region are basically 30-35 degrees.
Second part of the system looks to come thru starting about 174 hours out. Which would be late sunday night around 1 AM ..(technically 1 AM monday) Then precipitation moves out of the region by about 204 hrs out which would be tuesday morning. Temperatures for this part are actually colder.
So the difference this run compared to 12 Z is instead of one solid piece of energy it brings it thru as two separate over running events. In the big cities of the NE we are probably looking at ICE..further to the N & W we would be looking at Mainly snow & Ice.
Again this is not a forecast but model interpretation and you do not see that many people talking about it because they are caught up in the “back of winter has been broken” mentality and also the “thaw” that we are currently going thru. The thaw that is temporary. We will continue to monitor this latest system and see if other guidance begins to line up with the European guidance!
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