We been talking about over the past 24 hours that one of the models between the ECM/GFS was either going to bust badly or one of them had to change its solution. The model which was showing the coldest solution has now changed its solution and actually caved into the ECM. So the snow potential out of this system has virtually disappeared in the past 24 hrs.
As you can see virtually all models now have generally the same track with this area of low pressure. Some are slightly further west which would be considered the western extreme..but they all have one common theme and this is bringing warm southerly flow out ahead of the system with a large amount of precipitation as well.
GFS still remains the coldest and would suggest some snow across Northern portions of PA..so that is something we will keep an eye on.. however the European Computer model has temperatures ranging from 45-60 from just shy of the North Central PA/NY border covering all of central PA to eastern and NE pa and points east. With the more northerly extent of the system the stronger the low the stronger the southerly flow ahead of the system.
Precipitation amounts look to be on the order of 1-2 inches. Where there is a deep snowpack yet and with the warmer temperatures and the rain this could present some flooding problems ..especially across Western Pa.. and locations in Southern New England where they still have snowfall.
Stay tuned for more information on this developing storm!
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