ECM Model Update for Feb 20-22nd Time Frame!

You may have heard or read on the internet that the ECM has caved into the GFS. This statement has some partial truth to it. However..when a model run changes from the consistency that it was showing for several runs one has to proceed with caution. So lets first look at the 12 Z ECM Operational Run..

It seems that from this image it has lost its first over running situation. Over running is basically WAA riding over top of colder air and does not always represent a storm. There is moisture on the precipitation maps but it does kind of fade it out on the 12 Z run. You can see the 850s however at that time are fairly chilly.

Part two..

This is where the operational has gone over to the way of the GFS.

You can see it really deepens this system now and because of that it pulls it towards the Great lakes which sends warm air up and out ahead of it..

But lets just wait a second..can we really say that the ECM has trended towards the GFS after just one run? I suppose if we were the type that hugged the models we could & I suppose if we wanted to just take the operational run as verbatim that we could. However..we generally know that if a system all of a sudden shows something different ..that this generally means it is time to turn to the models ensembles. So that is what we shall do at this time.

When we do this..we see a totally different picture being painted ..We do have the first over running situation and we also have the second part but what we notice are two important things.

1. The ensemble means are alot colder then the operational run

2. The ensemble means are further to the south with the system.

So..what we can say at this point and time is that the operational run is out of harmony with its ensemble means. 

So we can either believe the ECM has caved in to the GFS or we can realize that this operational run stands in contrast to its own means.

So we will continue to monitor this time frame for the potential return to winter and potential for fun and games once again for parts of the region!