The Kona Low & What It Means & Could Mean in about ten days!

Not sure how many of you are familiar with the Kona low.  A Kona low is a cold core low pressure area or extra tropical cyclone that effects Hawaii with various kinds of weather. They typically bring heavy rains, hail storms, flash floods & water spouts and landslides, high winds, large surfs and swells to Hawaii and they typical effect the region for a week or more.

Generally these types of systems teleconnect well to a – EPO block with a negative NAO over Iceland & Greenland. While at the same time this is occurring the Southeast ridge should slide east somewhat and weaken somewhat. This would allow colder air to drain into first the western states and then the central and then into the east. The above normal temperatures should then be confined to the Southeast.

This could be the very reason why the models have started backing off on the warmer air be a longer duration. This also potentially means what we are going thru is a typical thaw which normally occurs every winter but for the past two winters have been occurring later then what is typical.

European Computer Model is beginning to pick up on this idea

As you can see the cold air starts out west and in the central states and then..

As you can see the colder air then bleeds into the east and sets itself up on kind of a gradient pattern. The Southeast ridge will still be there but it should be weaker and more east which would allow the warmer temps in the southeast. ECM means fully support the operational with this occurring as well.

What about the GFS? The GFS also supports what the European Computer Model is showing but at 240 hrs out it is a little colder then the ECM.

So it appears that the backbone of winter might not actually be broken and that winter could very well be making a return across the Northern Mid Atlantic into the Northeast in about 9 days.

If guidance is any indication (GFS) & ECM to an extent ..there could also be a parade of storms that will travel along this gradient boundary that could deliver rounds of wintery weather on the northern side which would be in the colder air .

So lets sit back and enjoy the warm weather for the next week but then just like a roller coaster climbs that hill… once at the top ..it starts to plummet & that very well could be what lies ahead…all thanks to the Kona Low!