The 00z ECM continue along the same consistent theme that it has been displaying now for several runs. That theme is the return to winter and the potential for a light to moderate snow event ..verbatim in the region. Last night the ECM total QPF was greatest inland compared to along the coast which was only .10-.20 liquid or about 2 inches of snow. Further inland along the lines of 2-4 inches of snow. I think it is important to keep in mind that the ECM has a known low QPF bias…However..it could also be that it ends up more or less shearing the system out once it is further east. Blocking is in place and confluence is strong.
It seems that the GFS is faster at ejecting the energy out of the Southwest while the ECM/GGEM/ NOGAPS (yes nogaps) are slower in ejecting the energy out. Typically when you are dealing with energy from the SW the slower camp is usually the correct camp but at this time range the small scale specific details will have to much of a lead time to pin down.
At this point and time it seems prudent to start thinking that there is the potential for another snow event in the not to distant future and even though the weather is warm now its going to take a turn back towards winter!
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