Is Winter Over or Does Winter Make Its Return Slowly over the next 10 days?

Guidance seems to be showing us lakes cutter after lakes cutter with heavy rain events..One thing that seems sure is that over the next 10 days ..there will be no shortage of rain and there will probably be an abundance of rain. However, there after is where things begin to get interesting.

For at least the past 4 consecutive runs of the GFS..the time frame after March 7th appears to be getting colder. Lets look at the following images..

06 Z

12 Z

18 Z

00z

What your looking at here is the 850 mb temperature anomolies and as you can tell at least the operational GFS is suggesting that the colder air could be making its return in the longer range. And the operational model is not alone as the GFS ensemble means are also showing the same scenario returning after the 7th of March.

Another thing that the guidance is beginning to hint at is the PNA which is strongly negative now starts to weaken and head up more towards neutral and the EPO  which is positive now is going to be going negative ..which means whenever the EPO goes negative it provides ridging in the west into Canada. Now keep in mind that a strong negative EPO would also indicate a strong SE ridge but the EPO is shown not to become over bearingly strong. The other thing that one notices is that the NAO which is strongly positive now is going to start to head into the negative realms before heading back into the neutral positive range.

Now this may become a significant factor around the 6-7th of March as you can see that is when we are dropping into negative and then starting to rise into that neutral positive. Chances are that during this time period there will be a big east coast storm. And guidance is suggesting this indeed will be the case..

Now..because this is in the long range of the guidance all we can do is merely speculate because nothing is set in stone this far out. However..the NAO is going to be negative at this time frame and if that is indeed the case then this could be a case of can the colder air come in before the low pressure moves into the area? If the cold air is delayed or a little late it could be a rain to snow scenario.That is one scenario.

A more likely scenario is that there will be a northern area of low pressure that moves thru with an attending cold front with colder air behind that front. On that front a wave could potentially form and move up and along that front. The question then becomes how far east does that front make it? And what side of the front would the region lie on? Again all we are doing is speculating on the guidance above with the telconnections that are in place at the time.

So as you can see..perhaps winter is not over after all & could make a return for the last 2-3 weeks of the month of march. It is something to keep an eye on and see where this leads over the next 10 days!