This is not a forecast by any means but rather just model output of what the 12 Z ECM on the 13th of February showed.
What you are looking at above is basically the representation of where the 850s start at below freezing and how they proceed thru out the event. If you are on the Northern side of those lines they you would be looking at Frozen precipitation but as the event proceeds you then have to be on the northern side of the final line. That is about the furthest north that the 850s make it before they start to sink southwards again.
The event is about 30 hours round or about of precipitation Temperatures are generally in the 30s ..30-35 marker as you move thru those lines above…So if you are north of the yellow line you never get above that 30-35 marker.
So verbatim it would go something like this..
From the red to the blue line you would start in the frozen variety but you would change over to rain.
From the blue to yellow line you would also start out as frozen and probably more of a longer duration before changing over as well..
And if you are north of the Yellow line you would primarily remain all frozen.
More or less appears to be a primary heading into Ohio that ends up handing off to a secondary. This system on the ECM is very moisture laded.
We made a post yesterday about watching what happens because of the Kona Low and how this could result in a gradient pattern and this is essentially what you are seeing occur here on this 12 Z run.
Will it happen? Way to early to say but never the less it looks like in the next 8+ days the weather could get very interesting & this would be after the area flirts with the 60 degree mark.
Is the back bone of winter broken or is it just reloading?
Stay tuned
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