Feb 9-11 th time period

As we have been watching these models and observing this time period …the question has been whether or not there is going to be a storm and if so what areas are going to be effected….

We had mentioned that because of the history of the past storm ..how we would not be surprised to see this trend further N & W in the short range at 48 hrs and under.

So lets look at what is been happening….

00z GFS ensemble means

Versus 12 Z means same time period

Interestingly enough the 12 Z means have actually trended more N & W and have the .10-.25 range of QPF now into and almost up to Central NJ and not that far off from Philadelphia.

Lets look at the GGEM now from last night at 60 hrs

Notice how the low pressure is well south of hatteras?

Now lets look at 12 Z at the same time period..

Interestingly enough the GGEM has also shifted N and W with the system and its moisture associated with it. Add on top of that the European Computer Model…at 48 hrs

Now the ECM has also come more west with the system and it brings very light QPF into SNJ & DE.

So all these models have one common theme in order and that common theme is that they have all come more towards the NW with the system & its QPF…

Now..by all means I am not saying that we are going to get a storm out of this system..Most likely scenario is this will slide out to the south and the east but folks in the southern areas perhaps MD into SNJ will have to keep an eye on this system. There could also be more of a trend to the NW.

The reason that I am bringing up this possibility of a more NW trend is because at the present moment the modeling is in 100% agreement with position of the surface low with the 12 Z Nogaps.

We know that the NOGAPS has a notorious south and east bias and majority of times if it is in the same location as the other global guidance it is usually an indicator that the global guidance will correct itself more to the west.

The NOGAPS at 12 Z actually has the precipitation stradding the PA/MD border into CNJ at 42 hrs out.

Keep in mind until today the models had this storm sliding south and east much further to the south then what it is now.

So while a few people were accusing R.W.S of wishcasting that this would come further to the N & W that very thing is actually taking place.

We will continue to monitor this latest system and when it comes closer we will also begin to nowcast this system as well.